Forex Analysis – January 31, 2022 (the Last one!)
Our previous Forex analysis can be viewed here…
This will be my last Forex analysis! As of 1st February 2023, I will leave the TriumphFX team.
Thank you to TriumphFX and everyone that has supported the analysis over the years.
Technical Analysis
FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Indecisive. Possible downside
As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price has been moving sideways.
AUDUSD was up-trending but is now looking indecisive. Price has swung below the recent range support area (0.7085-0.7130), signalling potential downside. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, so the market indecision may continue.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.6925, 0.6940, 0.6985, 0.6995, 0.7050, 0.7065, 0.7085 and 0.7130.
FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Market indecision
Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.
EURGBP is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8730, 0.8750, 0.8775, 0.8805, 0.8810, 0.8845 and 0.8880.
FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Up-trending. Possible range and market indecision
As suggested in our previous Forex analysis, EURUSD has been moving sideways.
Price was up-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. EURUSD has formed a range at 1.0835-1.0920.
Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range, around the diagonal support area and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 1.0785, 1.0770, 1.0760 and 1.0720.
FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Ranging
GBPUSD has been moving sideways, as suggested in our previous analysis.
Price is indecisive and is ranging. Price action has formed two ranges; 1.2265-1.2430 and 1.2355-1.2420. The moving averages continue to move sideways and be tight, so the market indecision could also continue.
Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the ranges and if GBPUSD moves out of either range (break-out trade).
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Market indecision. Possible downtrend?
As suggested in our last Forex chart analysis, price has found resistance around the trend resistance area.
The USDCAD is looking choppy and indecisive. Price action has formed lower swing highs and lower swing lows though and the moving averages are bearish and widening, so price may become bearish.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3300, 1.3345, 1.3410 and 1.3430.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Consolidating
Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in our last analysis.
The USDCHF is indecisive. Price action has formed two clear consolidation patterns; a range at 0.9165-0.9240 and a symmetrical triangle pattern. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the consolidation patterns and if USDCHF moves out of a consolidation pattern (break-out trade).
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Market indecision
As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, the USDJPY reversed off the 129.15 area.
Price is indecisive. Price action has formed a range at 129.15-130.60. The moving averages are tight and have been crossing frequently, so the market indecision may continue.
Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 131.05 and 131.30. A break to the downside may find support around 127.95.
METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Indecisive
GOLD has been moving sideways, as suggested in our previous XAUUSD analysis.
Price was up-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages have crossed bearish, suggesting possible downside.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1885, 1897, 1902, 1916, 1921, 1940 and 1949.
Fundamental Analysis
Key Analysis
Today’s Major Scheduled News
0130 UTC – CNY – Manufacturing PMI
0500 UTC – JPY – Consumer Confidence
0630 UTC – EUR – French GDP Growth Rate
0745 UTC – EUR – French Inflation Rate
1000 UTC – EUR – Italian & Euro Area GDP Growth Rate
1300 UTC – EUR – German Inflation Rate
Interest Rate Analysis
A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…
Australia (AUD)
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again by another 0.25%, so rates are now set at 3.10%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation. The RBA have said that inflation is still too high, so further hikes are expected.
Canada (CAD)
The Bank of Canada (BOC) has hiked the interest rate by another 50bps, increasing the official bank rate to 3.75% – it’s seventh consecutive rate hike. The BOC noted that they will continue with quantitative easing and that economic growth remains strong, although it expects growth to stall for the first half of 2023.
Euro Area (EUR)
The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased it’s rates by 50bps, so the official rate is now at 2.50%. Europe is potentially entering recession. Projected inflation for 2023 is 6.3%.
Japan (JPY)
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The BOJ does not currently plan to increase rates to tackle high inflation, which has been revised to 2.90% from 2.30%.
Switzerland (CHF)
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 50bps, bringing the official rate to 1.0% – it’s third rate hike after more than a decade of negative interest rates. The SNB signalled that rates could move higher, so further rate hikes are expected.
United Kingdom (GBP)
The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by 50 bps, so the official rate is now set to 3.50%. The BOE are expecting recession in the UK and forecast that CPI inflation has now peaked.
United States (USD)
The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 50bps, so the rate is currently now set at 4.50%. The Fed expect rates to peak at 5.1% in 2023.
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