Forex Analysis – January 30, 2023
Our previous Forex analysis can be viewed here…
Technical Analysis
FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Indecisive
As suggested in our last Forex chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been bullish.
Price action has formed a higher swing high but price is starting to look indecisive again. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. AUDUSD could start ranging between 0.7085 and 0.7130.
Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 0.7065, 0.7045, 0.6995, 0.6985 and 0.6940.
FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Market indecision. Possible downside?
The EURGBP has been moving sideways, as suggested in our last chart analysis.
Price is indecisive but has formed a head and shoulder pattern, suggesting potential downside. The moving averages continue to move sideways, so the market indecision may continue.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8730, 0.8750, 0.8775, 0.8805, 0.8810 and 0.8845.
FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Up-trending. Potential indecision
As suggested in our previous Forex analysis, price has found support around the trend support area.
The EURUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. Price has swung below the moving averages and is starting to look indecisive, so price action could become indecisive. The moving averages confirm the possible market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.
Buying opportunities may exist around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at .0835, 1.0785, 1.0770 and 1.0760. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.0900 and 1.0920.
FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Ranging
Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in our previous analysis.
The GBPUSD was up-trending but is now moving sideways. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1.2265-1.2430 and price is ranging within the channel. The moving averages are tight and have been crossing frequently, so the market indecision may continue.
Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if GBPUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 1.2235 and 1.2165.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Market indecision. Possible downtrend?
As suggested in our last chart analysis, USDCAD has been moving sideways.
Price is indecisive but has swung below the recent consolidation area, suggesting a potential downtrend. The moving averages confirm the possible downside – they are bearish and steady.
Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3335, 1.3345, 1.3410 and 1.3430.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Indecisive
USDCHF reversed around 0.9165, as suggested in our last analysis.
Price is indecisive. Price action is forming a symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern and the moving averages are moving sideways, so the market indecision may continue.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around 0.9240, around the support and resistance areas of the consolidation pattern and if USDCHF moves out of the pattern (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 0.9165, 0.9145 and 0.9105. A break to the upside may find resistance around 0.9280, 0.9310 and 0.9340.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Market indecision
As suggested in our previous analysis, price has been moving sideways.
USDJPY is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, so the market indecision could continue.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 127.35, 127.95, 129.00, 130.60, 131.05, 131.30 and 132.75.
METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Up-trending. Market indecision?
Price has been moving sideways.
GOLD was up-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways.
Trading opportunities could exist around any of the horizontal levels at 1870, 1879, 1885, 1897, 1902, 1916, 1921, 1940 and 1949.
Fundamental Analysis
Key Analysis
Today’s Major Scheduled News
0900 UTC – EUR – German GDP Growth
Interest Rate Analysis
A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…
Australia (AUD)
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again by another 0.25%, so rates are now set at 3.10%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation. The RBA have said that inflation is still too high, so further hikes are expected.
Canada (CAD)
The Bank of Canada (BOC) has hiked the interest rate by another 50bps, increasing the official bank rate to 3.75% – it’s seventh consecutive rate hike. The BOC noted that they will continue with quantitative easing and that economic growth remains strong, although it expects growth to stall for the first half of 2023.
Euro Area (EUR)
The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased it’s rates by 50bps, so the official rate is now at 2.50%. Europe is potentially entering recession. Projected inflation for 2023 is 6.3%.
Japan (JPY)
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The BOJ does not currently plan to increase rates to tackle high inflation, which has been revised to 2.90% from 2.30%.
Switzerland (CHF)
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 50bps, bringing the official rate to 1.0% – it’s third rate hike after more than a decade of negative interest rates. The SNB signalled that rates could move higher, so further rate hikes are expected.
United Kingdom (GBP)
The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by 50 bps, so the official rate is now set to 3.50%. The BOE are expecting recession in the UK and forecast that CPI inflation has now peaked.
United States (USD)
The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 50bps, so the rate is currently now set at 4.50%. The Fed expect rates to peak at 5.1% in 2023.
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