Forex Analysis – 24 January, 2023
Our previous Forex analysis can be viewed here…
Technical Analysis
FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Market indecision
As suggested in our last analysis, the AUDUSD has failed to swing higher.
Price was up-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.6875, 0.6925, 0.6940, 0.6985, 0.7015 and 0.7045. If AUDUSD moves above the recent highs at 0.7045, price could attempt a bullish move higher.
FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Indecision
The EURGBP has been bullish.
Price is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, so the indecision may continue. Price action is forming a higher swing high and price is above the moving averages, signalling that EURGBP may become bullish.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8730, 0.8750, 0.8775, 0.8795, 0.8835 and 0.8850.
FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Up-trending
As suggested in our previous analysis, price closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish.
The EURUSD is up-trending again, after a period of market indecision. Price is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and widening, so the upside direction could continue.
Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0870, 1.0770 and 1.0760.
FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Up-trending
Price has been bullish and has swung higher, as suggested in our previous Forex chart analysis.
The GBPUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, so the uptrend may continue.
Long opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the diagonal support areas and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2340, 1.2320, 1.2290 and 1.2235. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent highs at 1.2430.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Market indecision
USDCAD has been bearish.
Price is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways, so the indecision could continue. If USDCAD moves below the 1.3335 area, price may start down-trending.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.3335, 1.3355, 1.3430, 1.3440, 1.3475 and 1.3515.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Indecisive
USDCHF has been moving sideways.
Just like other USD pairs, the USDCHF is looking indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, so the current indecision may continue.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.9105, 0.9145, 0.9165, 0.9235, 0.9280, 0.9310 and 0.9340.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Market indecision. Possible upside?
As suggested in our last Forex analysis, price has become indecisive.
USDJPY is looking indecisive but has formed some higher swing lows, signalling possible upside. The moving averages confirm the potential upward momentum – they are bullish and widening.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around any of the horizontal levels at 127.35, 127.95, 129.00, 129.60, 130.60, 131.30 and 132.75.
METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Up-trending. Possible indecision?
Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in our previous analysis.
GOLD is up-trending and is currently in a sideways retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, so the uptrend may continue.
Opportunities to go long could exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1921, 1902, 1897 and 1885. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 1933.
Fundamental Analysis
Key Analysis
Today’s Major Scheduled News
0030 UTC – AUD – Business Confidence
0700 UTC – EUR – German Consumer Confidence
Interest Rate Analysis
A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…
Australia (AUD)
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again by another 0.25%, so rates are now set at 3.10%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation. The RBA have said that inflation is still too high, so further hikes are expected.
Canada (CAD)
The Bank of Canada (BOC) has hiked the interest rate by another 50bps, increasing the official bank rate to 3.75% – it’s seventh consecutive rate hike. The BOC noted that they will continue with quantitative easing and that economic growth remains strong, although it expects growth to stall for the first half of 2023.
Euro Area (EUR)
The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased it’s rates by 50bps, so the official rate is now at 2.50%. Europe is potentially entering recession. Projected inflation for 2023 is 6.3%.
Japan (JPY)
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The BOJ does not currently plan to increase rates to tackle high inflation, which has been revised to 2.90% from 2.30%.
Switzerland (CHF)
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 50bps, bringing the official rate to 1.0% – it’s third rate hike after more than a decade of negative interest rates. The SNB signalled that rates could move higher, so further rate hikes are expected.
United Kingdom (GBP)
The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by 50 bps, so the official rate is now set to 3.50%. The BOE are expecting recession in the UK and forecast that CPI inflation has now peaked.
United States (USD)
The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 50bps, so the rate is currently now set at 4.50%. The Fed expect rates to peak at 5.1% in 2023.
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