Forex Analysis – December 06, 2022


Our previous Forex analysis can be viewed here

Technical Analysis

FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Market indecision

AUDUSD Forex chart
AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the trend support area and formed a swing higher.

Price was up-trending but has recently been bearish. AUDUSD is below the recent trend support area and the moving averages, suggesting that upside momentum could be weakening – the uptrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages confirm this – they are becoming bearish. The AUDUSD is looking indecisive.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.6585, 0.6635, 0.6680, 0.6750, 0.6830 and 0.6845.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Indecisive. Potential downside?

EURGBP Forex analysis
EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP reversed around the shorter-term moving average, as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis.

Price is indecisive but is slightly down-trending. Price action has formed a bearish channel, so the downside momentum may continue. The moving averages continue to cross and move sideways though, suggesting market indecision.

Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8650, 0.8665, 0.8690 and 0.8705. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.8560 and 0.8550.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Up-trending

EURUSD 1 hour chart
EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher.

The EURUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, so the upside direction could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0445, 1.0395, 1.0325 and 1.0300. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.0540 and 1.0590.

FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Up-trending

GBPUSD Forex analysis
GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed off the shorter-term moving average and has swung higher, as suggested in our last Forex chart analysis.

The GBPUSD is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Price is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish, so the uptrend may continue.

Long opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1.2145, 1.2050 and 1.1940. A bullish move may find resistance around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2290 and 1.2340.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Indecision. Possible upside?

USDCAD technical analysis
USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, USDCAD reversed off the diagonal support area.

Price is up-trending but is looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3320, 1.3390, 1.3500 and 1.3635.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Downtrend?

USDCHF price chart
USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF reversed off the bearish channel support area, as suggested in our previous Forex analysis.

Price is choppy but is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside direction may continue. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the USDCHF is moving within the channel.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9435, 0.9455 and 0.9485. A bearish move may find support around the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.9385 and 0.9330.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Down-trending. End of the trend?

USDJPY Forex analysis
USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the shorter-term moving average.

USDJPY is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Price has swung above the moving averages, so downside momentum could be weakening – the downtrend could becoming to an end.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 137.70, 137.90, 139.00 and 139.60. A bearish move could find support around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 135.50 and 133.75.

METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Up-trending

XAUUSD 1 hour chart
XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed off the shorter-term moving average, as suggested in Friday’s analysis.

GOLD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. Price has swung below the bullish moving averages and the moving averages are starting to tighten, so upside momentum may be weakening – the uptrend may becoming to an end.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1762, 1748 and 1740. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1783 and 1803.

Fundamental Analysis

Key Analysis

Today’s Major Scheduled News

1330 UTC – CAD – Balance of Trade
1330 UTC – USD – Balance of Trade
1500 UTC – CAD – Ivey PMI

Interest Rate Analysis

A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…

Australia (AUD)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, this time by another 0.25%, so rates are now set at 2.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation, which is potentially starting to pivot, so large rate hikes could be coming to an end.

Canada (CAD)

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has hiked the interest rate by 50bps, increasing the official bank rate to 3.75% – it’s sixth consecutive rate hike. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.

Euro Area (EUR)

The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased it’s rates by another 75bps, so the official rate is now at 2.00%. Europe is entering recession. Rising inflation may result in further rate hikes.

Japan (JPY)

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The BOJ does not currently plan to increase rates to tackle high inflation. It will however continue to buy bonds and intervene in the FX markets when needed.

Switzerland (CHF)

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 75bps, bringing the official rate to 0.5% – interest rates being positive for the first time in over a decade. The SNB signalled that rates could move higher, so further rate hikes expected.

United Kingdom (GBP)

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by another 75bps. The official rate is now set to 3.00%. The BOE are expecting recession in the UK.

United States (USD)

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 75bps – it’s sixth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 4.00%. The Fed have suggested that rates will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.

Start trading today with Triumph’s Forex MT4 trading platform – https://www.tfxi.com/

Keep up-to-date with our Forex chart analysis – https://analysis.tfxi.sc/

Hits: 352