Forex Analysis – November 28, 2022
Our previous Forex analysis can be viewed here…
Technical Analysis
FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Market indecision
As suggested in Friday’s Forex analysis, price is looking indecisive.
AUDUSD is lacking trend direction and is ranging between 0.6585-0.6780. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, so the current market indecision may continue.
Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 0.6545 and 0.6485.
FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Down-trending. Possible indecision?
Price has been reversing around the shorter-term moving average, as suggested in Friday’s analysis.
EURGBP is down-trending but is starting to look indecisive. Price action is trending within a bearish channel and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages bearish and steady, so the downside momentum could continue, but price could start ranging between 0.8575-0.8610.
Selling opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8610, 0.8630 and 0.8690. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 0.8575 and around the bearish channel support area.
FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Ranging
As suggested in our previous chart analysis, EURUSD has reversed around the range resistance area.
Price is indecisive and continues to range between 1.0225 and 1.0445. The moving averages are moving sideways and crossing frequently, so the indecision may continue.
Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 1.0095, 1.0035 and 0.9980.
FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Up-trending
GBPUSD has been bearish.
Price is clearly up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, so the uptrend could continue.
Buying opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1965, 1.1935, 1.1780, 1.1765 and 1.1725. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing high at 1.2145.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Indecisive
Price continues to be indecisive, as suggested in our previous analysis.
The USDCAD is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.3305, 1.3320, 1.3415, 1.3495, 1.3545 and 1.3565.
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Market indecision
As suggested in our last Forex chart analysis, price has been moving sideways.
The USDCHF is indecisive, just like other USD pairs. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between 0.9385 and 0.9595.
Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade).
FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Indecisive. Potential downside?
The USDJPY has been moving sideways, as suggested in our last analysis.
Price is indecisive but has formed a lower swing low, signalling possible downside. The moving averages confirm this – they are bearish and steady.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 138.10, 139.60, 140.60 and 142.15. If the USDJPY moves below 138.10, price may become bearish.
METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Indecisive
As suggested in Friday’s analysis, GOLD has been moving sideways.
Price is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1703, 1715, 1732, 1748, 1759, 1770 and 1783.
Fundamental Analysis
Key Analysis
Today’s Major Scheduled News
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Interest Rate Analysis
A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…
Australia (AUD)
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, this time by another 0.25%, so rates are now set at 2.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation, which is potentially starting to pivot, so large rate hikes could be coming to an end.
Canada (CAD)
The Bank of Canada (BOC) has hiked the interest rate by 50bps, increasing the official bank rate to 3.75% – it’s sixth consecutive rate hike. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.
Euro Area (EUR)
The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased it’s rates by another 75bps, so the official rate is now at 2.00%. Europe is entering recession. Rising inflation may result in further rate hikes.
Japan (JPY)
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The BOJ does not currently plan to increase rates to tackle high inflation. It will however continue to buy bonds and intervene in the FX markets when needed.
Switzerland (CHF)
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 75bps, bringing the official rate to 0.5% – interest rates being positive for the first time in over a decade. The SNB signalled that rates could move higher, so further rate hikes expected.
United Kingdom (GBP)
The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by another 75bps. The official rate is now set to 3.00%. The BOE are expecting recession in the UK.
United States (USD)
The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 75bps – it’s sixth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 4.00%. The Fed have suggested that rates will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.
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