Forex Analysis – November 25, 2022


Our previous Forex analysis can be viewed here

Technical Analysis

FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Market indecision

AUDUSD Price Chart
AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, the AUDUSD has been moving sideways and has found resistance around 0.6780.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. Price action has formed a potential range at 0.6585-0.6780. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. If AUDUSD moves above the 0.6780 area, price could attempt a bullish move higher.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.6545, 0.6585, 0.6635, 0.6720 and 0.6780. Opportunities to go long may exist if price closes above 0.6780.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Down-trending

EURGBP Forex chart
EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has been bearish and has reversed around the bearish channel support area, as suggested in yesterday’s Forex analysis.

Price is clearly down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and widening and EURGBP continues to downtrend within a bearish channel, so the downside direction may continue. Price action is indecisive on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8630, 0.8695 and 0.8705. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 0.8575 and around the channel support area.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Ranging

EURUSD Forex analysis
EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been moving sideways.

The EURUSD is indecisive and is ranging between 1.0225 and 1.0445. The moving averages are moving sideways and have been crossing, so the market indecision could continue.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 1.0095, 1.0035 and 0.9980.

FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Up-trending

GBPUSD Forex analysis
GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish and has formed a swing higher, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

The GBPUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, so the uptrend may continue.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1965, 1.1935 and 1.1780. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.2145.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Indecisive

USDCAD technical analysis
USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, USDCAD has been moving sideways.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, so the current indecision could continue. Higher time-frames are providing mixed directional signals.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.3240, 1.3305, 1.3415, 1.3495, 1.3545 and 1.3565.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Market indecision

USDCHF price action
USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF has been moving sideways, as suggested in our previous Forex chart analysis.

Price is indecisive and is ranging, just like other USD pairs.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance area of the range and if USDCHF moves out of the range (break-out trade).

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Indecisive. Potential downside?

USDJPY price action chart
USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish.

USDJPY has been indecisive but recent price action has been bearish and has broken the recent range support area, signalling possible further downside. The moving averages confirm this – they are bearish and widening.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 139.30, 140.60 and 142.35. A bearish move could find support around 138.10.

METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Indecisive

GOLD analysis
XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

GOLD is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages have been crossing frequently, so the market indecision may continue.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1703, 1715, 1732, 1748, 1759, 1770 and 1783.

Fundamental Analysis

Key Analysis

US CPI inflation is lower than expected, increasing confidence that inflation has peaked.

There are rumours that China may start easing it’s strict COVID lockdown

Today’s Major Scheduled News

n/a

Interest Rate Analysis

A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…

Australia (AUD)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, this time by another 0.25%, so rates are now set at 2.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation, which is potentially starting to pivot, so large rate hikes could be coming to an end.

Canada (CAD)

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has hiked the interest rate by 50bps, increasing the official bank rate to 3.75% – it’s sixth consecutive rate hike. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.

Euro Area (EUR)

The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased it’s rates by another 75bps, so the official rate is now at 2.00%. Europe is entering recession. Rising inflation may result in further rate hikes.

Japan (JPY)

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The BOJ does not currently plan to increase rates to tackle high inflation. It will however continue to buy bonds and intervene in the FX markets when needed.

Switzerland (CHF)

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 75bps, bringing the official rate to 0.5% – interest rates being positive for the first time in over a decade. The SNB signalled that rates could move higher, so further rate hikes expected.

United Kingdom (GBP)

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by another 75bps. The official rate is now set to 3.00%. The BOE are expecting recession in the UK.

United States (USD)

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 75bps – it’s sixth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 4.00%. The Fed have suggested that rates will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.

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