Forex Analysis – November 23, 2022


Our previous Forex analysis can be viewed here

Technical Analysis

FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Down-trending

AUDUSD technical analysis
AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, the AUDUSD has been finding resistance around the longer-term moving average.

Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, so the downtrend could continue. There is major USD three times today, which could cause a sudden change in trend direction.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6720 and 0.6780. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 0.6635, 0.6585, 0.6545 and 0.6485.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Down-trending

EURGBP Forex analysis
EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP is currently finding resistance around the longer-term moving average and around 0.8690, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and the downtrend is moving within a bearish channel, so the downtrend may continue. Price action continues to be indecisive on higher time-frames.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8690, 0.8705 and 0.8770. A bearish move may find support around the shorter-term moving average, around the recent swing low at 0.8635 and around the channel support area.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Down-trend?

EURUSD price chart
EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish.

The EURUSD has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows but recent price action has been bullish. Price is potentially down-trending but EURUSD is above the moving averages and the moving averages are starting to move sideways, signalling possible market indecision. There is major USD three times today, which could cause a sudden change in market direction.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0095, 1.0225, 1.0280, 1.0310, 1.0390 and 1.0440.

FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Ranging

GBPUSD price chart
GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been moving sideways.

The GBPUSD is indecisive and is moving within a range a 200 pip range at 1.1765-1.1965. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. The major USD news today could provide a sudden range break-out.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 1.1725, 1.1590 and 1.1535.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Up-trending?

USDCAD price action analysis
USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD has been bearish.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The retrace move has swung below the trend support area and the moving sideways, so upside momentum could be weakening – the trend could becoming to an end. There is major USD three times today, which could cause a sudden change in market direction.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous diagonal support area (as resistance) and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.3240, 1.3305, 1.3390, 1.3495, 1.3545 and 1.3565.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Market indecision?

USDCHF chart analysis
USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF has been bearish.

Price was showing signs of a potential uptrend but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. The major USD news today, which may bring some trend direction.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.9385, 0.9460, 0.9485, 0.9505, 0.9550, 0.9595 and 0.9825.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Up-trending

USDJPY Forex analysis
USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last Forex chart analysis, price found support around the diagonal support area.

USDJPY is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. Price has moved below the recent trend support area and below the shorter-term moving average, so upside momentum could be weakening – the uptrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages are still bullish and steady though, suggesting further upside. There is major USD three times today, which could cause a sudden change in market direction.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 140.60, 139.30 and 138.45. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average, around the previous trend support area (as resistance) and around the horizontal resistance levels at 142.35 and 145.25.

METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Indecision?

GOLD chart
XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around the trend resistance area, as suggested in our previous analysis.

GOLD is down-trending but has failed to swing higher – the downtrend may becoming to an end. The moving averages are still bearish and steady though, suggesting that the downside direction may continue. XAUUSD may start ranging between 1732 and 1748.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the identified diagonal resistance area and around any of the horizontal levels at 1703, 1715, 1732, 1748, 1756, 1770 and 1783.

Fundamental Analysis

Key Analysis

US CPI inflation is lower than expected, increasing confidence that inflation has peaked.

There are rumours that China may start easing it’s strict COVID lockdown

Today’s Major Scheduled News

1330 UTC – USD – Durable Goods
1500 UTC – USD – New Home Sales
1900 UTC – USD – FOMC Meeting Minutes

Interest Rate Analysis

A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…

Australia (AUD)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, this time by another 0.25%, so rates are now set at 2.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation, which is potentially starting to pivot, so large rate hikes could be coming to an end.

Canada (CAD)

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has hiked the interest rate by 50bps, increasing the official bank rate to 3.75% – it’s sixth consecutive rate hike. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.

Euro Area (EUR)

The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased it’s rates by another 75bps, so the official rate is now at 2.00%. Europe is entering recession. Rising inflation may result in further rate hikes.

Japan (JPY)

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The BOJ does not currently plan to increase rates to tackle high inflation. It will however continue to buy bonds and intervene in the FX markets when needed.

Switzerland (CHF)

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 75bps, bringing the official rate to 0.5% – interest rates being positive for the first time in over a decade. The SNB signalled that rates could move higher, so further rate hikes expected.

United Kingdom (GBP)

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by another 75bps. The official rate is now set to 3.00%. The BOE are expecting recession in the UK.

United States (USD)

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 75bps – it’s sixth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 4.00%. The Fed have suggested that rates will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.

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