Forex Analysis – November 21, 2022


Our previous Forex analysis can be viewed here

Technical Analysis

FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Down-trending?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart
AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s analysis, the AUDUSD has failed to swing higher – the uptrend is over.

Price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, so price could start down-trending. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they are bearish and widening.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6635, 0.6720 and 0.6780. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.6545, 0.6485 and 0.6450.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Potential downtrend?

EURGBP technical analysis
EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP closed below the range support area and has since been bearish, as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis.

Price was ranging but EURGBP is below the recent consolidation area, so price may start down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady and price action has formed a bearish channel – confirming the possible downside.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8695, 0.8705, 0.8770 and 0.8820. A bearish move may find support around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8625 and 0.8590.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Down-trend?

EURUSD price action analyis
EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price closed below the range support area and has since been bearish.

The EURUSD is below the recent consolidation area and is forming a strong bearish move lower, so price could start down-trending. The moving averages confirm the possible downside – they are bearish and widening.

Selling opportunities may exist around the trend resistance area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0280, 1.0310, 1.0390 and 1.0440. A bearish move could find support around 1.0095 and 1.0035.

FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Ranging

GBPUSD Forex chart
GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price found resistance around the previous diagonal support area and has start ranging, as suggested in our last Forex analysis.

The GBPUSD is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 1.1765-1.1965 and the moving averages are tight and moving sideways, so the market indecision may continue.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 1.1725, 1.1590 and 1.1535.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Uptrend?

USDCAD Forex analysis
USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, USDCAD reversed around the moving averages.

Price was indecisive but is now bullish. Price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows and the moving averages are bullish and widening, so the upside momentum could continue.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the diagonal support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3390, 1.3305 and 1.3240. A bullish move could find resistance around 1.3475, 1.3545, 1.3565 and 1.3590.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Potential upside?

USDCHF price chart
USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF has been bullish, as suggested in our previous Forex chart analysis.

Price action has formed some higher swing highs and lows, suggesting a potential uptrend. The moving averages confirm the possible upside – they are bullish and widening.

Long opportunities could exist around the diagonal support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages, and around the horizontal levels at 0.9550, 0.9485 and 0.9385. A bullish move may find resistance around 0.9825.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Possible uptrend?

USDJPY Forex analysis
USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s analysis, price closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish.

USDJPY is above the recent consolidation area and is forming a swing higher, so price could start up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening – confirming the possible upside.

Buying opportunities may exist around the trend support area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 140.60 and 139.30. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance level at 142.35.

METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Potential downside?

GOLD technical analysis
XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price moved below the range support area and has been bearish, as suggested in Friday’s Forex analysis.

XAUUSD is below the recent consolidation area and has formed a head and shoulder pattern, so GOLD may start down-trending. The moving averages confirm this – they are bearish and widening.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1756, 1770 and 1783. A bearish move may find support around 1715 and 1703.

Fundamental Analysis

Key Analysis

US CPI inflation is lower than expected, increasing confidence that inflation has peaked.

There are rumours that China may start easing it’s strict COVID lockdown

Today’s Major Scheduled News

n/a

Interest Rate Analysis

A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…

Australia (AUD)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, this time by another 0.25%, so rates are now set at 2.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation, which is potentially starting to pivot, so large rate hikes could be coming to an end.

Canada (CAD)

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has hiked the interest rate by 50bps, increasing the official bank rate to 3.75% – it’s sixth consecutive rate hike. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.

Euro Area (EUR)

The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased it’s rates by another 75bps, so the official rate is now at 2.00%. Europe is entering recession. Rising inflation may result in further rate hikes.

Japan (JPY)

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The BOJ does not currently plan to increase rates to tackle high inflation. It will however continue to buy bonds and intervene in the FX markets when needed.

Switzerland (CHF)

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 75bps, bringing the official rate to 0.5% – interest rates being positive for the first time in over a decade. The SNB signalled that rates could move higher, so further rate hikes expected.

United Kingdom (GBP)

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by another 75bps. The official rate is now set to 3.00%. The BOE are expecting recession in the UK.

United States (USD)

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 75bps – it’s sixth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 4.00%. The Fed have suggested that rates will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.

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