Forex Analysis – November 16, 2022


Our previous Forex analysis can be viewed here

Technical Analysis

FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Up-trending

AUDUSD Forex analysis
AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous Forex analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher.

AUDUSD is clearly bullish and up-trending. Price action is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and steady, so the uptrend may continue. Price is also up-trending on higher time-frames.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.6720, 0.6665 and 0.6545. AUDUSD may stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.6780.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Ranging

EURGBP technical analysis
EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in our previous analysis.

EURGBP is indecisive and is moving sideways. Price action has formed a range at 0.8690-0.8820, so the market indecision could continue. Price is currently mid-range.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 0.8685, 0.8650 and 0.8625. Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Up-trending. Possible end to the trend?

EURUSD Forex analysis
EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, EURUSD has been bearish.

Price continues to uptrend though and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, so the upside direction may continue. EURUSD continues to test a key resistance area from higher time-frames, so upside momentum may weaken. Price may start ranging between 1.0280-1.0440.

Long opportunities could exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0360, 1.0280 and 1.0095. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high and potential range resistance at 1.0440.

FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Up-trending

GBPUSD price action chart
GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD has been bullish and has swung higher, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, so the uptrend could continue. GBPUSD is also up-trending on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1725, 1.1635, 1.1615, 1.1590 and 1.1535. A bullish move could find resistance around 1.1965.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Ranging. Continuation of the downtrend?

USDCAD technical analysis
USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last Forex chart analysis, price reversed around 1.3325 and has been bearish.

The USDCAD has been down-trending but is currently moving within a horizontal channel at 1.3245-1.3325. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. If price moves below the channel support area, USDCAD may start down-trending again.

Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3325, 1.3390, 1.3475 and 1.3545. Selling opportunities could also exist if price moves below 1.3245.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Down-trending. Current range

USDCHF price action
USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish, as suggested in our last analysis.

The USDCHF is clearly down-trending and has been strongly bearish. Price action has formed a range at 0.9385-0.9485 though, so price could become indecisive. The moving averages suggest that the downtrend could continue – they are bearish and steady. USDCHF is around a key weekly support area, signalling a possible upside move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around the longer-term moving average and around any of the key Fib levels.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Down-trending. Potential range?

USDJPY technical chart
USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous Forex analysis, the USDJPY was bearish and found support around the recent lows at 138.45.

Price is down-trending but has recently been moving sideways. Price action has formed a potential range at 138.45-140.60. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 142.35.

METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Up-trending. Possible retrace move?

GOLD price action analysis
XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has been bullish off the shorter-term moving average, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price is clearly up-trending. XAUUSD has been finding resistance around 1783. The moving averages are bullish but are tightening, signalling that upside momentum could be weakening – XAUUSD could become bearish or indecisive.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1756, 1715 and 1703. A bullish move could continue to find resistance and even reverse around the highs at 1783.

Fundamental Analysis

Key Analysis

US CPI inflation is lower than expected, increasing confidence that inflation has peaked.

There are rumours that China may start easing it’s strict COVID lockdown

Today’s Major Scheduled News

0700 UTC – GBP – Inflation YOY
1330 UTC – CAD – Inflation YOY
1330 UTC – USD – Retail Sales
2350 UTC – JPY – Balance of Trade
0030 UTC – AUD – Unemployment Rate

Interest Rate Analysis

A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…

Australia (AUD)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, this time by another 0.25%, so rates are now set at 2.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation, which is potentially starting to pivot, so large rate hikes could be coming to an end.

Canada (CAD)

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has hiked the interest rate by 50bps, increasing the official bank rate to 3.75% – it’s sixth consecutive rate hike. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.

Euro Area (EUR)

The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased it’s rates by another 75bps, so the official rate is now at 2.00%. Europe is entering recession. Rising inflation may result in further rate hikes.

Japan (JPY)

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The BOJ does not currently plan to increase rates to tackle high inflation. It will however continue to buy bonds and intervene in the FX markets when needed.

Switzerland (CHF)

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 75bps, bringing the official rate to 0.5% – interest rates being positive for the first time in over a decade. The SNB signalled that rates could move higher, so further rate hikes expected.

United Kingdom (GBP)

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by another 75bps. The official rate is now set to 3.00%. The BOE are expecting recession in the UK.

United States (USD)

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 75bps – it’s sixth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 4.00%. The Fed have suggested that rates will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.

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