Forex Analysis – November 15, 2022


Our previous Forex analysis can be viewed here

Technical Analysis

FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Up-trending

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has been bullish.

Price is up-trending and is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and steady and AUDUSD is now up-trending on higher time-frames, so the upside direction could continue.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6720, 0.6665, 0.6545 and 0.6510.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Market indecision. Potential upside?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP reversed off the recent highs at 0.8820, as suggested in our last Forex analysis.

Price is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages have been crossing frequently but are currently bullish and price action has formed a diagonal support area, so price may attempt to swing higher. EURGBP is ranging though (0.8690-0.8820), signalling that the market indecision may continue.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities could also exist around the moving averages and diagonal support area.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Up-trending. Possible bearish move?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has swung higher.

The EURUSD is clearly up-trending but is currently testing key resistance on higher time-frames, so price could attempt a bearish move. Price action is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and steady, so the uptrend could continue.

Long opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0360 and 1.0280.

FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Up-trending

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around the 23.6% Fib level and has since been bullish, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

The GBPUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, so the uptrend may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.1725, 1.1635, 1.1615, 1.1590 and 1.1535. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.1855.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Down-trending

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, USDCAD has been bearish.

Price is down-trending and is nearing the previous swing low. The moving averages are bearish and steady, so the downside momentum could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the moving averages, around the trend resistance area, if the USDCAD closes below the recent swing low at 1.3245 and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.3325, 1.3390, 1.3475 and 1.3545.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Down-trending. Potential bullish move?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF has been bearish and has just swung lower, as suggested in yesterday’s Forex chart analysis.

Price is clearly down-trending. Price action is currently forming a swing lower. The moving averages are bearish and widening, so the downtrend may continue. The USDCHF is testing a key support level on higher time-frames though, suggesting that price may become bullish.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9405, 0.9485 and 0.9825.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Down-trending

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways.

USDJPY is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages signal that the downtrend could continue – they are bearish and widening.

Selling opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 140.60 and 142.35. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the recent swing low at 138.45.

METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Up-trending

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s Forex analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher.

GOLD is up-trending and is currently forming a swing higher. Price action has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and steady, so the uptrend may continue.

Long opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area, around any of the key Fib levels, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1773, 1756 and 1715. A bullish move may find resistance around the channel resistance area.

Fundamental Analysis

Key Analysis

US CPI inflation is lower than expected, increasing confidence that inflation has peaked.

There are rumours that China may start easing it’s strict COVID lockdown

Today’s Major Scheduled News

0700 UTC – GBP – Unemployment rate, claimant count change
1330 UTC – USD – PPI

Interest Rate Analysis

A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…

Australia (AUD)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, this time by another 0.25%, so rates are now set at 2.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation, which is potentially starting to pivot, so large rate hikes could be coming to an end.

Canada (CAD)

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has hiked the interest rate by 50bps, increasing the official bank rate to 3.75% – it’s sixth consecutive rate hike. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.

Euro Area (EUR)

The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased it’s rates by another 75bps, so the official rate is now at 2.00%. Europe is entering recession. Rising inflation may result in further rate hikes.

Japan (JPY)

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The BOJ does not currently plan to increase rates to tackle high inflation. It will however continue to buy bonds and intervene in the FX markets when needed.

Switzerland (CHF)

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 75bps, bringing the official rate to 0.5% – interest rates being positive for the first time in over a decade. The SNB signalled that rates could move higher, so further rate hikes expected.

United Kingdom (GBP)

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by another 75bps. The official rate is now set to 3.00%. The BOE are expecting recession in the UK.

United States (USD)

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 75bps – it’s sixth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 4.00%. The Fed have suggested that rates will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.

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