Forex Analysis – November 14, 2022


Our previous Forex analysis can be viewed here

Technical Analysis

FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Up-trending

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s Forex chart analysis, price has been bullish.

AUDUSD is clearly up-trending and is currently in a slight retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, so the uptrend may continue. Price is starting to uptrend on higher time-frames.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6545, 0.6515, 0.6485 and 0.6450. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent highs at 0.6715.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURGBP – Market indecision

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in Friday’s analysis.

EURGBP is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is also indecisive on higher time-frames, so the market indecision could continue longer-term.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the identified diagonal support and resistance areas and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8650, 0.8685, 0.8685, 0.8690, 0.8700, 0.8735, 0.8780 and 0.8820.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Up-trending

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last Forex analysis, EURUSD has been bullish and has climbed higher.

Price is clearly up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. EURUSD is now up-trending on higher time-frames also. The moving averages are bullish and widening, so the uptrend may continue.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0095, 1.0035 and 0.9980. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.0360.

FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Up-trending

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD has been bullish, as suggested in our last analysis.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, so the the uptrend could continue. The GBPUSD has also closed above key resistance areas on higher time-frames, suggesting that price could uptrend long-term.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.1635, 1.1615, 1.1590, 1.1535 and 1.1435. A bullish move could find resistance around 1.1850.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Down-trending

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, price has been bearish.

The USDCAD is down-trending. Price is currently in a retrace move and is finding resistance around the shorter-term moving average. The moving averages are bearish and widening, so the downtrend may continue.

Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3390, 1.3475 and 1.3545. A bearish move may find support around the recent swing low at 1.3245.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Down-trending

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish and has swung lower, as suggested in our previous analysis.

The USDCHF is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, so the downtrend could continue. Price is looking oversold, so USDCHF could retrace further before attempting a bearish move lower.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support at 0.9825. A bearish move could find support around 0.9405.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Down-trending

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, the USDJPY has been bearish.

Price is down-trending. USDJPY is currently in a retrace move and is testing the shorter-term moving average. The moving averages are bearish and widening, so the downtrend may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 140.95, 142.35 and 145.25. A bearish move may find support around 138.45.

METAL ANALYSIS: XAUUSD – Up-trending

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has been bullish and has reversed off the shorter-term moving average, as suggested in our last Forex chart analysis.

Price is clearly up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, so the uptrend could continue. XAUUSD is around key resistance on higher time-frames, suggesting a possible downside move.

Buying opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1715 and 1703. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1770.

Fundamental Analysis

Key Analysis

US CPI inflation is lower than expected, increasing confidence that inflation has peaked.

There are rumours that China may start easing it’s strict COVID lockdown

Today’s Major Scheduled News

2350 UTC – JPY – GDP Growth Rate
0030 UTC – AUD – RBA Meeting Minutes
0200 UTC – CNY – Industrial Production

Interest Rate Analysis

A summary of recent central bank rate changes and statements…

Australia (AUD)

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, this time by another 0.25%, so rates are now set at 2.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation, which is potentially starting to pivot, so large rate hikes could be coming to an end.

Canada (CAD)

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has hiked the interest rate by 50bps, increasing the official bank rate to 3.75% – it’s sixth consecutive rate hike. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.

Euro Area (EUR)

The European Central Bank (ECB) has increased it’s rates by another 75bps, so the official rate is now at 2.00%. Europe is entering recession. Rising inflation may result in further rate hikes.

Japan (JPY)

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The BOJ does not currently plan to increase rates to tackle high inflation. It will however continue to buy bonds and intervene in the FX markets when needed.

Switzerland (CHF)

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 75bps, bringing the official rate to 0.5% – interest rates being positive for the first time in over a decade. The SNB signalled that rates could move higher, so further rate hikes expected.

United Kingdom (GBP)

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by another 75bps. The official rate is now set to 3.00%. The BOE are expecting recession in the UK.

United States (USD)

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 75bps – it’s sixth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 4.00%. The Fed have suggested that rates will continue to rise for the foreseeable future.

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