Forex Analysis – USD Pairs – November & December 2022


Our previous USD Forex analysis click here

Technical Analysis

FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Down-trending. Time for a retrace move?

AUDUSD Forex analysis
AUDUSD Daily Chart

Price reversed around the longer-term moving average, as suggested in our last analysis.

AUDUSD is down-trending but price is starting to look over-extended, suggesting a potential bullish retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and widening, so the downtrend may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.6725 and 0.6850.

FOREX ANALYSIS: EURUSD – Down-trending. Possible upside break?

EURUSD Forex daily chart
EURUSD Daily Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, the EURUSD has continued to downtrend and be bearish.

Price is clearly down-trending within a bearish channel. EURUSD is currently in a retrace move. The channel resistance area has been tested many times, so price may potentially break higher. The moving averages continue to be bearish though and EURUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, so the downtrend may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0125, 1.0375 and 1.0775. A bearish move may find support around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal support levels at 0.9700 and 0.9600.

FOREX ANALYSIS: GBPUSD – Down-trending

GBPUSD technical analysis
GBPUSD Daily Chart

GBPUSD has been clearly bearish and has swung lower, as suggested in our previous USD chart analysis.

Price is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a long series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages suggest that the downside direction may continue – they are bearish and steady. The GBPUSD is also down-trending on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1850, 1.2250, 1.2350, 1.2650 and 1.3000. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1.0950 and 1.0700 and around the diagonal support area.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCAD – Up-trending

USDCAD price action analysis
USDCAD Daily Chart

As suggested in our last USD Forex analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher.

USDCAD is clearly up-trending. Price is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, so the uptrend may continue. USDCAD is also up-trending on higher time-frames.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3100, 1.3050, 1.2950 and 1.2750. A bullish move may find resistance around the recent swing high at 1.3900.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDCHF – Up-trending. Possible indecision?

USDCHF analysis
USDCHF Daily Chart

USDCHF has been bullish.

Price action has formed a series of higher swing highs, so the USDCHF is up-trending. The moving averages signal that the trend could continue – they are bullish and steady. Price is struggling to move above the resistance area at 1.0050 and price action is looking a little choppy, suggesting that USDCHF could become indecisive.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the moving averages, around the trend support areas, if price closes above 1.0050 and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9850, 0.9550 and 0.9400.

FOREX ANALYSIS: USDJPY – Up-trending. Possible bearish move lower?

USD Forex Analysis
USDJPY Daily Chart

As suggested in our last USD Forex analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher.

USDJPY is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a long series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Price is currently forming a swing higher but is starting to look overbought on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bearish retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, so the uptrend may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 139.00, 131.50, 130.75 and 126.50. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high and psychological level at 150.00.

Fundamental Analysis

Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 75bps – it’s fifth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 3.25%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of around 4.00-5.00% by the end of 2022.

September Key Economic Figures

Inflation rate 8.20%
2022 GDP Growth 3.50%
Unemployment rate 2.60%

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