Forex Analysis – AUD Pairs – November & December 2022


Our previous AUD Forex analysis click here

Technical Analysis

FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDCAD – Down-trending

AUD Forex chart
AUDCAD Daily Chart

As suggested in our previous AUD chart analysis, the AUDCAD reversed around the longer-term moving average and has since been bearish.

Price is clearly down-trending and is currently forming a swing lower. AUDCAD is finding support, so price could be due a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8750, 0.8915, 0.8950 and 0.9095.

FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDCHF – Down-trending

AUD technical analysis
AUDCHF Daily Chart

The AUDCHF closed below the range support area and has since been bearish, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, so price is down-trending. AUDCHF has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and widening, so the downside may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.6400, 0.6500, 0.6525, 0.6575, 0.6700 and 0.6800. A bearish move may find support around the recent lows at 0.6225 and around the bearish channel support area.

FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDJPY – Up-trending. Market indecision?

AUDJPY technical analysis
AUDJPY Daily Chart

As suggested in our last Forex analysis, price was bullish and formed a swing higher.

AUDJPY is clearly up-trending but recent price action is suggesting market indecision. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways – so AUDJPY could also start ranging between 91.25-98.25.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 84.00, 86.00, 88.25, 91.25, 95.50, 96.50 and 98.25.

FOREX ANALYSIS: AUDUSD – Down-trending. Time for a retrace move?

AUD Forex analysis
AUDUSD Daily Chart

Price reversed around the longer-term moving average, as suggested in our last analysis.

AUDUSD is down-trending but price is starting to look over-extended, suggesting a potential bullish retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and widening, so the downtrend may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend resistance area and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.6725 and 0.6850.

Fundamental Analysis

Interest Rates

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, this time by only 0.25%, rather than the expected 0.50%. Rates now stand at 2.60%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation, which is still too high, so further rate hikes are expected. The RBA have stated that the economic outlook is cloudy, due to inflation, the war in Ukraine and China’s potential recession, so the RBA will respond when necessary to tackle inflation and stabilise the Australian economy.

The RBA recently mentioned that there may be no more need for large rate hikes, so future rate hikes could be much lower (5-25 bps).

Key Economic Figures

June 2022 inflation rate 6.10%
June 2022 GDP Growth 0.90%
September 2022 unemployment rate 3.5%

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