TriumphFX Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 26, 2022

Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.sc/2022/08/10/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-august-10-2022/

AUDUSD – Potential uptrend?

Price was down-trending but recent price action has been bullish. AUDUSD has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows and has also formed a bullish channel, suggesting a potential uptrend. The moving averages confirm the possible upside – they are bullish and steady.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6945, 0.6885 and 0.6865. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6985, 0.7065 and 0.7085.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, by another 0.50% to 1.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation. The RBA have stated that the economic outlook is cloudy, due to the war in Ukraine and China’s anti-COVID measures.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s fourth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 2.5%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of around 3.25% by the end of 2022.

A US price index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1400 UTC.

EURGBP – Ranging

EURGBP is indecisive and has formed a large range at 0.8395-0.8505. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range ad if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities could also exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8410, 0.8425, 0.8460 and 0.8485.

The European Central Bank (ECB)has increased it’s rates by 0.50%, bringing the official rate to 0.75%. Further rate hikes could happen, due to rising inflation.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by 0.50% – it’s biggest rate increase since 1995! The official rate is now set to 1.75%. This is the 6th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. The BOE has announced a potential recession by the end of 2022, which could last throughout 2023.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Market indecision. Possible upside?

Price was down-trending but has recently been indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. The EURUSD is ranging between 0.9905 and 1.0010. Price action is forming a potential ascending triangle pattern, signalling a possible break higher.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may also exist around the moving averages and the ascending triangle support area. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 1.0125, 1.0190 and 1.0280.

The European Central Bank (ECB)has increased it’s rates by 0.50%, bringing the official rate to 0.75%. Further rate hikes could happen, due to rising inflation.

A US price index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1400 UTC.

GBPUSD – Indecision. Possible break higher?

Just like EURUSD, the GBPUSD was down-trending but is now indecisive. Also like EURUSD, price action has formed an ascending triangle pattern, suggesting possible upside. Price is ranging between 1.1730 and 1.1850 and the moving averages are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range, if GBPUSD moves out of the range, around the moving averages and around the diagonal support area. A bullish move may find resistance around 1.2020 and 1.2125.

A US price index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1400 UTC.

USDCAD – Downtrend?

The USDCAD has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows, signalling a downtrend. Price is currently in a retrace move and is testing the shorter-term moving average. The moving averages are bearish and widening – confirming the possible downtrend.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3015 and 1.3060. A bearish move could find support around 1.2900, 1.2885, 1.2830 and 1.2800.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by an entire percent, increasing the official bank rate to 2.5%. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.

A US price index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1400 UTC.

USDCHF – Indecisive

Price was up-trending but is now indecisive. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.9615-0.9690 and USDCHF is moving within the channel. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 0.9560, 0.9540 and 0.9500.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 0.50%, bringing the official rate to -0.25% – interest rates still being negative. The SNB did not rule out further rate hikes in future or the possibility of intervening in foreign exchange markets. The rate increase is to tackle rising inflation.

A US price index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1400 UTC.

USDJPY – Ranging

Just like other FX pairs, USDJPY is indecisive and ranging. Price action has formed a range at 136.25-137.55. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 135.45, 134.75 and 134.00.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis but not as great as initially thought – inflation and a resurgence of COVID cases are weighing on the Japanese economy.

A US price index figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1400 UTC.

XAUUSD – Indecisive. Possible upside?

XAUUSD formed a large bearish move and has since been in a retrace phase. Price is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are currently bullish, suggesting possible upside.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1730, 1744, 1763, 1772 and 1783.

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