TriumphFX Interday Forex Analysis – AUD Pairs – August, September, October 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.sc/2022/03/17/triumphfx-forex-analysis-aud-pairs-april-may-june-2022/

AUDCAD – Daily Chart – Down-trending

AUDCAD Daily Chart

Price has been bearish.

AUDCAD has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows – price is down-trending. The AUDCAD is currently in a retrace and is testing the moving average resistance area. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downside direction may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 0.9130 and 0.9235. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal support levels at 0.8915 and 0.8750.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, by another 0.50% to 1.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation. The RBA have stated that the economic outlook is cloudy, due to the war in Ukraine and China’s anti-COVID measures.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by an entire percent, increasing the official bank rate to 2.5%. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.

AUDCHF – Daily Chart – Indecision

AUDCHF Daily Chart

AUDCHF has been bearish.

Price was showing a potential uptrend but recent price action has been bearish and is now looking indecisive. AUDCHF has been moving sideways and has formed a tight range at 0.6600-0.6700. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if AUDCHF closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around the moving averages and around 0.6805, 0.7035 and 0.7065. A break to the downside could find support around 0.6520, 0.6500 and 0.6405.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 0.50%, bringing the official rate to -0.25% – interest rates still being negative. The SNB did not rule out further rate hikes in future or the possibility of intervening in foreign exchange markets. The rate increase is to tackle rising inflation.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, by another 0.50% to 1.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation. The RBA have stated that the economic outlook is cloudy, due to the war in Ukraine and China’s anti-COVID measures.

AUDJPY – Daily Chart – Up-trending

AUDJPY Daily Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, price has been bullish and has been swinging higher.

The AUDJPY is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. Price is currently moving sideways though and has formed a range at 91.85-95.60.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the range support area and around the horizontal levels at 88.30, 86.00 and 84.05. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around 95.60 and 96.65.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, by another 0.50% to 1.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation. The RBA have stated that the economic outlook is cloudy, due to the war in Ukraine and China’s anti-COVID measures.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis but not as great as initially thought – inflation and a resurgence of COVID cases are weighing on the Japanese economy.

AUDUSD – Daily Chart – Down-trending

AUDUSD Daily Chart

AUDUSD reversed around 0.7600, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price was indecisive but is now down-trending – price action has formed lower swing highs and lower swing lows. AUDUSD is currently in a retrace move and is testing the daily moving averages. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.7280, 0.7530 and 0.7590. A bearish move could find support around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal support levels at 0.6865 and 0.6730.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s fourth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 2.5%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of around 3.25% by the end of 2022.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, by another 0.50% to 1.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation. The RBA have stated that the economic outlook is cloudy, due to the war in Ukraine and China’s anti-COVID measures.

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