TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 10, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.sc/2022/08/09/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-august-09-2022/

AUDUSD – Indecision. Potential upside?

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been moving sideways.

Price is indecisive but has formed a higher swing high and is potentially forming an inverted head and shoulder pattern, suggesting a potential bullish move. AUDUSD is also up-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence to a possible bullish move. The moving averages are crossing frequently, signalling that the market indecision could continue.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous diagonal resistance area (as support) and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.6865, 0.6885, 0.6910, 0.6990, 0.7000, 0.7025 and 0.7040.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, by another 0.50% to 1.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation. The RBA have stated that the economic outlook is cloudy, due to the war in Ukraine and China’s anti-COVID measures.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s fourth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 2.5%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of around 3.25% by the end of 2022.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP – Up-trending

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP has been bullish, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price is up-trending and is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages suggest that the upside direction may continue – they are bullish and steady. EURGBP is down-trending on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bearish move lower.

Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8445, 0.8410 and 0.8400. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.8460, 0.8490, 0.8520 and 0.8535.

The European Central Bank (ECB)has increased it’s rates by 0.50%, bringing the official rate to 0.75%. Further rate hikes could happen, due to rising inflation.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by 0.50% – it’s biggest rate increase since 1995! The official rate is now set to 1.75%. This is the 6th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. The BOE has announced a potential recession by the end of 2022, which could last throughout 2023.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Market indecision

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous analysis, price has been moving sideways.

The EURUSD has been indecisive for weeks and has formed a consolidation area at 1.0105-1.0285. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and have been crossing frequently. The major USD news today could be a driving force out of the consolidation.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the consolidation and around the horizontal levels at 1.0115, 1.0130, 1.0155, 1.0250 and 1.0265.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s fourth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 2.5%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of around 3.25% by the end of 2022.

The European Central Bank (ECB)has increased it’s rates by 0.50%, bringing the official rate to 0.75%. Further rate hikes could happen, due to rising inflation.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Down-trending. End of the trend?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around 1.2125, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

The GBPUSD has been down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Recent price action has been sideways, signalling market indecision – the downtrend may becoming to an end. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.1920, 1.1960, 1.2025, 1.2125, 1.2180, 1.2190 and 1.2235.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by 0.50% – it’s biggest rate increase since 1995! The official rate is now set to 1.75%. This is the 6th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. The BOE has announced a potential recession by the end of 2022, which could last throughout 2023.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s fourth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 2.5%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of around 3.25% by the end of 2022.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD – Indecision. Potential uptrend?

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, USDCAD has been bullish.

Price is indecisive. The moving averages have crossed and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Price action has formed a series of higher swing lows, suggesting a potential bullish move – the USDCAD could start up-trending.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2770, 1.2820, 1.2845, 1.2895, 1.2925, 1.2945 and 1.2960.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s fourth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 2.5%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of around 3.25% by the end of 2022.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by an entire percent, increasing the official bank rate to 2.5%. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – Potential downtrend?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF has been bearish.

Price was indecisive and ranging. Recent price action has been bearish though. The USDCHF has broken the range support area and is currently below the consolidation, suggesting that price may start down-trending. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they are bearish and widening.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9535, 0.9565 and 0.9635. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 0.9515 and 0.9485.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 0.50%, bringing the official rate to -0.25% – interest rates still being negative. The SNB did not rule out further rate hikes in future or the possibility of intervening in foreign exchange markets. The rate increase is to tackle rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s fourth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 2.5%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of around 3.25% by the end of 2022.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY – Up-trending

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been finding support around the shorter-term moving average and the trend support area.

USDJPY is up-trending and is currently in a sideways retrace move. Price is ranging between 134.45 and 135.35. The moving averages are bullish but starting to move sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Long opportunities may exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 134.45 and 132.55. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the range resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 136.00 and 137.45.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s fourth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 2.5%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of around 3.25% by the end of 2022.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis but not as great as initially thought – inflation and a resurgence of COVID cases are weighing on the Japanese economy.

US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Up-trending. End of the trend?

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish and has just found support around the trend support area, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

GOLD is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a long series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. The most recent swing high was not much higher than the previous swing high, signalling that upside momentum may be weakening – the uptrend may becoming to an end.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the trend support area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1785, 1769 and 1754. A bullish move may find resistance around 1795 and 1798.

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