TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 05, 2022

Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.sc/2022/08/04/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-august-04-2022/

AUDUSD – Indecision

Price has been moving sideways.

AUDUSD was up-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price is still up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.6845, 0.6865, 0.6885, 0.6910, 0.6985, 0.7025 and 0.7040.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again, by another 0.50% to 1.85%. The rate increases throughout 2022 have been to tackle rising inflation. The RBA have stated that the economic outlook is cloudy, due to the war in Ukraine and China’s anti-COVID measures.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s fourth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 2.5%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of around 3.25% by the end of 2022.

US non-farm employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP – Potential uptrend?

Price has been bullish.

EURGBP was down-trending but the recent bullish move has swung above key resistance levels and is forming a higher swing high, signalling a potential uptrend. The moving averages have crossed bullish – confirming the potential upside. Price continues to downtrend on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the diagonal support area, around the previous trend resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 0.8410 and 0.8400. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around 0.8430, 0.8460, 0.8490 and 0.8520.

The European Central Bank (ECB)has increased it’s rates by 0.50%, bringing the official rate to 0.75%. Further rate hikes could happen, due to rising inflation.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by 0.50% – it’s biggest rate increase since 1995! The official rate is now set to 1.75%. This is the 6th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. The BOE has announced a potential recession by the end of 2022, which could last throughout 2023.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Market indecision

As suggested in our previous analysis, EURUSD has continued to move sideways.

Price has been indecisive for over 2 weeks and has formed a clear consolidation area at 1.0105-1.0285. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently. The major USD news today may bring some direction to this pair.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0105, 1.0115, 1.0130, 1.0190, 1.0250, 1.0265 and 1.0285. Trading opportunities could also exist if EURUSD moves out of the consolidation area (break-out trade).

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s fourth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 2.5%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of around 3.25% by the end of 2022.

The European Central Bank (ECB)has increased it’s rates by 0.50%, bringing the official rate to 0.75%. Further rate hikes could happen, due to rising inflation.

US non-farm employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

GBPUSD – End of the trend?

GBPUSD has failed to swing higher, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

Price was up-trending but the recent retrace move swung below the trend support area, suggesting that upside momentum could be weakening. The moving averages are currently moving sideways, signalling market indecision. GBPUSD could start ranging between 1.2080 and 1.2280. The major USD news today could provide some clarification of future trend direction.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous trend support area (as resistance) and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.1920, 1.1960, 1.2025, 1.2080, 1.2190, 1.2235 and 1.2280.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again. This time by 0.50% – it’s biggest rate increase since 1995! The official rate is now set to 1.75%. This is the 6th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. The BOE has announced a potential recession by the end of 2022, which could last throughout 2023.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s fourth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 2.5%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of around 3.25% by the end of 2022.

US non-farm employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD – Indecision

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been moving sideways.

The USDCAD is clearly indecisive and is moving within a large horizontal channel at 1.2770-1.2895. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. The major USD and CAD news today may bring some trend direction.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the USDCAD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.2925, 1.2945 and 1.2990.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s fourth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 2.5%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of around 3.25% by the end of 2022.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by an entire percent, increasing the official bank rate to 2.5%. The BOC have announced that further hikes are expected to tackle rising inflation.

US non-farm employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. Canadian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at the same time.

USDCHF – Market indecision

Price has been bearish.

The USDCHF was down-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9485, 0.9585, 0.9645, 0.9660 and 0.9690.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) have hiked rates by 0.50%, bringing the official rate to -0.25% – interest rates still being negative. The SNB did not rule out further rate hikes in future or the possibility of intervening in foreign exchange markets. The rate increase is to tackle rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s fourth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 2.5%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of around 3.25% by the end of 2022.

US non-farm employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY – Ranging

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has been moving sideways.

Price is indecisive and is currently ranging between 132.55 and 134.50. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 136.00 and 137.45. A break to the downside may find support around 130.65.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s fourth rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently now set at 2.5%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of around 3.25% by the end of 2022.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis but not as great as initially thought – inflation and a resurgence of COVID cases are weighing on the Japanese economy.

US non-farm employment change, unemployment rate and average hourly earnings figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Up-trending

GOLD has swung higher, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

Price is clearly up-trending and is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the uptrend could continue.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1785, 1754, 1742 and 1735. A bullish move could find resistance around the diagonal resistance area and around the recent highs at 1795.

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