TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 04, 2022

Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.sc/2022/08/03/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-august-03-2022/

AUDUSD – Potential downtrend?

As suggested in our last analysis, the AUDUSD is currently finding resistance around the longer-term moving average.

Price is currently bullish and has been reversing some of the recent bearish move. Price action has formed a lower swing low, suggesting that AUDUSD could start down-trending. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they are bearish and widening.

Selling opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 0.6960, 0.7025 and 0.7040. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 0.6910, 0.6885, 0.6865 and 0.6845.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again. This time by 0.50% to 0.85% – the first back-to-back rate hike since in 12 years. The unemployment rate hit it’s lowest in the last 50 years. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – Down-trending

The EURGBP has been finding resistance around the longer-term moving average, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages signal that the downtrend may continue – they are bearish and steady. EURGBP is also down-trending on higher time-frames.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8400, 0.8410, 0.8420, 0.8440 and 0.8460. An attempt to swing lower may stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing low at 0.8340.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. The ECB have announced that a rate hike of 0.25% is expected in the near future – it’s first hike since early 2016.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

The BOE will announce the official interest rate and release monetary policy reports at 1100 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1130 UTC.

EURUSD – Market indecision

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been moving sideways.

The EURUSD is indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. Price has been moving sideways for over 2 weeks and has formed a consolidation area at 1.0105-1.0285. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0105, 1.0115, 1.0130, 1.0190, 1.0250, 1.0265 and 1.0285.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Up-trending. End of the trend?

Price found resistance around the longer-term moving average and failed to swing higher, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

The GBPUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. Price has swung below the trend support area, suggesting that upside momentum may be weakening – the uptrend may becoming to an end. The moving averages confirm this – they have crossed bearish.

Buying opportunities could exist around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2110, 1.2080, 1.2025 and 1.1960. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the previous trend support area (as resistance), around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2190, 1.2235 and 1.2280.

The BOE will announce the official interest rate and release monetary policy reports at 1100 UTC today. This is followed by a press conference at 1130 UTC.

USDCAD – End of the trend? Potential indecision?

As suggested in our previous analysis, USDCAD has failed to swing lower.

Price was down-trending but recent price action has been sideways – the downtrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, signalling market indecision. The USDCAD is currently ranging between 1.2835 and 1.2890.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2775, 1.2795, 1.2835, 1.2895, 1.2925, 1.2945 and 1.2990.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by an additional 0.50% to 1.50% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. Further rate hikes are expected to combat rising inflation. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Potential uptrend?

USDCHF has failed to swing lower, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

Price was down-trending but recent price action has been bullish. The USDCHF has formed a higher swing high and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling a potential uptrend.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.9585 and 0.9485. A bullish move may find resistance around any of the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9645, 0.9660, 0.9690, 0.9735 and 0.9785.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Market indecision?

As suggested in our last chart analysis, price has been moving sideways.

USDJPY was down-trending but recent price action has been bullish. Price is forming a higher swing high, signalling that the downtrend could be over. The moving averages suggest market indecision – they are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 130.65, 132.55, 134.50 and 136.00.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis but not as great as initially thought – inflation and a resurgence of COVID cases are weighing on the Japanese economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Up-trending

Price reversed around the trend support area, as suggested in our last analysis.

GOLD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways, suggesting indecision.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around any of the horizontal levels at 1754, 1742 and 1735. A bullish move may find resistance around 1785.

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