TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 03, 2022

Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.sc/2022/08/02/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-august-02-2022/

AUDUSD – Potential downtrend?

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price failed to swing higher.

AUDUSD has formed a bearish move below key support levels and is making a lower swing low, suggesting a potential downtrend. The moving averages confirm the possible downside – they are bearish and steady.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6960, 0.7025 and 0.7040. A bearish move may may stall or reverse around any of the horizontal levels at 0.6920, 0.6885, 0.6865, 0.6845 and 0.6805.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates again. This time by 0.50% to 0.85% – the first back-to-back rate hike since in 12 years. The unemployment rate hit it’s lowest in the last 50 years. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by an additional 0.75% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. The rate is currently set at 1.75%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates further – economists expecting a rate of 3.4% by the end of 2022.

A US services PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

EURGBP – Downtrend

Price has been bearish.

EURGBP has formed a swing lower and is down-trending again, after a period of slight indecision. The moving averages suggest that the downtrend could continue – they are bearish and steady. Price is also down-trending on higher time-frames.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8400, 0.8410, 0.8420, 0.8440 and 0.8460. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent lows at 0.8340.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. The ECB have announced that a rate hike of 0.25% is expected in the near future – it’s first hike since early 2016.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Market indecision

EURUSD has been bearish.

Price continues to be indecisive and move within a large consolidation at 1.0105 and 1.0285. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0105, 1.0115, 1.0155, 1.0250, 1.0265 and 1.0285.

A US services PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Up-trending

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, GBPUSD has reversed around the trend support area.

Price is clearly up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages have become tighter and are currently moving sideways, suggesting that upside momentum could be weakening – the uptrend could becoming to an end.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2115, 1.2080, 1.2025 and 1.1960. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2185, 1.2235 and 1.2280.

A US services PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDCAD – End of the trend? Possible upside?

Price has been bullish, as suggested in our previous analysis.

The USDCAD was down-trending but recent price action has been bullish. Price is above the moving averages and the moving averages have crossed bullish, suggesting that the upside direction may continue. Price is also above the recent trend resistance area.

Long opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous trend resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal support levels at 1.2795 and 1.2775. A bullish move may find resistance around 1.2895, 1.2925, 1.2945 and 1.2990.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by an additional 0.50% to 1.50% – it’s third rate hike in 2022. Further rate hikes are expected to combat rising inflation. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth.

A US services PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDCHF – Down-trending. End of the trend?

Price has been bullish.

The USDCHF is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a long series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. Price is currently in a retrace move. The retrace move has swung above the moving averages and also a minor swing high, signalling that downside momentum could be weakening – USDCHF could struggle to swing lower. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and moving sideways, suggesting market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.9485, 0.9585, 0.9605

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

A US services PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

USDJPY – Down-trending. Possible indecision?

The USDJPY has been bullish.

Price is clearly down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. USDJPY was moving within an aggressive bearish channel but has broken above the channel resistance area. The moving averages are starting to move sideways, suggesting market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 130.65, 132.55, 134.10 and 136.00.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis but not as great as initially thought – inflation and a resurgence of COVID cases are weighing on the Japanese economy.

A US services PMI figure will be released at 1400 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Up-trending

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, GOLD has been retracing.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average, around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1754, 1743 and 1735. A bullish move could find resistance around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing high at 1785.

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