TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 30, 2022

Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.sc/2022/05/27/triumphfx-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-may-27-2022/

AUDUSD – Up-trending

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price reversed off 0.7125 and has since been bullish.

AUDUSD is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Price is currently forming a swing higher. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support areas and around the horizontal levels at 0.7125, 0.7115, 0.7040 and 0.7005.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates by 0.25% to 0.35% – the first rate hike since November 2010. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – Market Indecision

Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in Friday’s analysis.

EURGBP is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways, confirming the market indecision. Price is currently ranging between 0.8485 and 0.8525.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities may also exist around the diagonal support area. A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.8580 and 0.8615. A break to the downside could find support around 0.8455, 0.8435 and 0.8405.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Up-trending. Potential bearish move?

As suggested in our previous analysis, EURUSD reversed around the moving averages and has since been bullish.

Price is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. EURUSD is currently forming a higher swing high. Price is struggling to swing above the 1.0760 area, signalling that upside momentum may be weakening – the uptrend may becoming to an end. EURUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bearish move.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0745, 1.0695, 1.0650 and 1.0605. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent highs at 1.0760.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Up-trending. Market indecision?

GBPUSD has been bullish, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

Price is up-trending within a bullish channel and is currently in a sideways retrace move. The moving averages suggest that the uptrend could continue – they are bullish and widening. GBPUSD is currently moving sideways though and is ranging between 1.2585-1.2655, suggesting market indecision.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the bullish moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2585, 1.2555, 1.2485, 1.2445 and 1.2390. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around 1.2655 and around the channel resistance area.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Down-trending

As suggested in our last chart analysis, price has been bearish.

The USDCAD is forming a large swing lower – price is down-trending again after a period of indecision. The moving averages suggest that the downside direction may continue – they are bearish and widening.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2765, 1.2805 and 1.2870.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Down-trending. Potential bullish move?

Price has been bearish, as suggested in our last analysis.

The USDCHF is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. Price is currently moving within a tight bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. The USDCHF is up-trending on higher time-frames and is currently around a key support area, signalling that USDCHF may become bullish.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9640, 0.9665, 0.9695 and 0.9760. A bearish move could find support around the recent lows at 0.9540 and around the bearish channel support area.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – End of the downtrend?

As suggested in Friday’s analysis, the USDJPY has failed to swing lower and has been ranging between 126.50 and 127.45.

Price is down-trending but is currently moving sideways – the downtrend may becoming to an end. Price has also closed above the trend resistance area. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. The USDJPY is ranging between 126.50 and 127.45. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). Trading opportunities could also exist around the previous trend resistance area. A break to the upside may find resistance around 128.10, 128.85 and 129.60.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Up-trending

GOLD has been bullish, as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis.

Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. XAUUSD is currently in a retrace move and around the bullish channel support area. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, signalling market indecision – price could start moving sideways.

Buying opportunities may exist around the bullish moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1850, 1845, 1835 and 1810. A bullish move could find resistance around 1865, 1870 and 1890 and around the channel resistance area.

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