TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 25, 2022

Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.sc/2022/05/24/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-may-24-2022/

AUDUSD – Up-trending

As suggested in our previous analysis, the AUDUSD has been finding support around the bullish channel support area.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. AUDUSD is up-trending within a bullish channel and is currently testing the channel support area. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the bullish channel support area, around the bullish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7065, 0.7040, 0.7005 and 0.6950. A bullish move could stall or reverse around 0.7125 and around the channel resistance area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates by 0.25% to 0.35% – the first rate hike since November 2010. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

FOMC is scheduled for 1800 UTC today.

EURGBP – Indecision. Potential upside?

The EURGBP has been moving sideways, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

Price continues to look indecisive. Price action has formed a higher swing high and the moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting a potential upside move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8435, 0.8450, 0.8500, 0.8525, 0.8580 and 0.8615.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Up-trending

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher.

The EURUSD is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Price is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue. EURUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bearish move.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0625 and 1.0605. A bullish move could find resistance around 1.0745.

FOMC is scheduled for 1800 UTC today.

GBPUSD – Up-trending

Price reversed around the longer-term moving average, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

The GBPUSD is clearly up-trending. Price is moving within a bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. GBPUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bearish move.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2485, 1.2445, 1.2390 and 1.2335. A bullish move may find resistance around the shorter-term moving average, around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2585 and 1.2630 and around the bullish channel resistance area.

FOMC is scheduled for 1800 UTC today.

USDCAD – Indecision

As suggested in our last analysis, USDCAD has been moving sideways.

Price has become indecisive, after showing potential downside momentum. The moving averages confirm the current market indecision – they are moving sideways. USDCAD is ranging between 1.2765 and 1.2855.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1.2885, 1.2905, 1.2930 and 1.2975. A bearish move could find support around 1.2720.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

FOMC is scheduled for 1800 UTC today.

USDCHF – Down-trending. Potential bullish move?

USDCHF has been bearish, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

Price is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. USDCHF is currently in a slight retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames and is currently testing a potential support area, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9670, 0.9695, 0.9760 and 0.9830. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent lows at 0.9585.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

FOMC is scheduled for 1800 UTC today.

USDJPY – Down-trending

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, price has been bearish.

USDJPY is down-trending and has just formed a new swing lower. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Price is currently in a retrace move. USDJPY continues to uptrend on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 127.20, 128.10 and 128.85. A bearish move could find support around 126.50.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

FOMC is scheduled for 1800 UTC today.

XAUUSD – Up-trending

Price has been bullish, as suggested in our previous analysis.

GOLD is up-trending within a bullish channel and is currently in a slight retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1850 and 1835.

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