TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 20, 2022

Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.sc/2022/05/19/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-chart-may-19-2022/

AUDUSD – Up-trending

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the trend support area and has been bullish.

AUDUSD is now reversing off the shorter-term moving average, as also suggested in yesterday’s analysis. Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6950 and 0.6880. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.7040, 0.7070, 0.7125 and 0.7170.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates by 0.25% to 0.35% – the first rate hike since November 2010. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – Indecision?

Price has failed to swing lower, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

EURGBP was down-trending but is currently looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have crossed and are moving sideways. Price is currently ranging between 0.8455 and 0.8495. EURGBP is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bearish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 0.8400 and 0.8370. A break to the upside could find resistance around 0.8525 and 0.8580.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Up-trending

As suggested in our previous analysis, EURUSD has been bullish.

Price is up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages confirm the uptrend – they are bullish and steady. EURUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames though, suggesting that price may become bearish.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0555, 1.0460 and 1.0415. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.0605 and 1.0625.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Up-trending

GBPUSD has been bullish off the longer-term moving average, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

Price is up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and lows. GBPUSD is currently around recent swing highs at 1.2500. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside direction could continue. Price is clearly down-trending on higher time-frames though, suggesting a potential bearish move.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2390, 1.2335 and 1.2265. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2505, 1.2605 and 1.2630.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Market indecision? Possible downside?

As suggested in our last chart analysis, price has been moving sideways.

The USDCAD is indecisive and is moving sideways. Price action has formed lower swing highs and lower swing lows though, suggesting a potential downtrend – price may swing lower. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they are bearish and steady.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.2720, 1.2795, 1.2850, 1.2890, 1.2905, 1.2930 and 1.2975.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Down-trending

Price has been bearish, as suggested in our last analysis.

The USDCHF has been clearly bearish. Price action has broken a number of key support levels, signalling a potential downtrend. The moving averages confirm the downside momentum – they are bearish and widening. Price continues to uptrend on higher time-frames though, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.9715, 0.9830 and 0.9880. A bearish move could find support around 0.9685.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Down-trending

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, the USDJPY has been bearish.

Price action has formed a long series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows – price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. The USDJPY is up-trending on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bullish move higher.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the diagonal resistance areas and around the horizontal levels at 128.85, 129.60 and 129.85. A bearish move may find support around the recent lows at 127.20.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Start of an uptrend?

GOLD has failed to swing lower, as suggested yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price has swung higher and is currently forming a higher swing high, signalling a possible uptrend. Price action has formed a potential bullish channel. The moving averages confirm the possible upside – they are bullish and widening.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1835, 1810 and 1795. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1855, 1870, 1890 and 1910.

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