TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Chart – May 19, 2022

Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.sc/2022/05/18/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-may-18-2022/

AUDUSD – Potential uptrend? Bearish move lower?

As suggested in our previous analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the longer-term moving average.

Price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows, suggesting a potential uptrend. AUDUSD is struggling to swing above the 0.7040 resistance area though, which is also a key resistance level on higher time-frames, signalling that price could become bearish.

Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal support area, around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.6830, 0.6880, 0.6950, 0.7040, 07125 and 0.7170.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates by 0.25% to 0.35% – the first rate hike since November 2010. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – End of the downtrend?

The EURGBP has been bullish.

Price has been down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. Recent price action has swung above the trend resistance area and the moving averages, signalling that downside momentum may be weakening – the downtrend may becoming to an end. The moving averages suggest market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous diagonal resistance area (as support) and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8370, 0.8405, 0.8495, 0.8525 and 0.8580.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Market indecision. Potential bullish move?

Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

The EURUSD is looking indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Price is looking a little oversold on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bullish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.0360, 1.0415, 1.0485, 1.0555, 1.0580 and 1.0590.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Uptrend?

As suggested in our last chart analysis, price has been finding support around the longer-term moving average.

The GBPUSD has formed a large bullish move and swing higher, signalling a potential uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and steady – confirming the potential upside. Price is currently in a retrace move and is forming a large inverted head and shoulder pattern, adding confidence that the GBPUSD may become bullish.

Buying opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1.2265 and 1.2175. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1.2390, 1.2425 and 1.2490.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Market indecision? Possible upside?

USDCAD reversed around the longer-term moving average, as suggested in our last analysis.

Price is looking indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages are tightening and starting to move sideways, suggesting market indecision. USDCAD is testing a key support area on higher time-frames, suggesting a possible bullish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2805, 1.2850, 1.2905, 1.2930, 1.2975 and 1.3045.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Down-trending

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, USDCHF has been bearish.

Price is down-trending and is currently forming a lower swing low. The moving averages suggest that the downtrend may continue – they are bearish and widening. USDCHF continues to uptrend on higher time-frames, signalling a potential bullish move.

Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9830, 0.9880, 0.9920, 0.9975 and 0.9995. A bearish move may find support around 0.9830, 0.9715 and 0.9675.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Indecision. Further downside?

Price has been bearish, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

USDJPY is indecisive. Price has been choppy. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Price continues to look overbought on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bearish move. If USDJPY closes below the 127.95 support area, price could start down-trending.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 128.85, 129.60 and 129.85. Price could stall or reverse around the recent lows and support area at 127.95.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 129.85, 130.45 and 130.75. A bearish move may find support around 127.95 and 127.10.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – End of the downtrend? Potential range?

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, price has been moving sideways.

GOLD was down-trending but is now looking indecisive. Price may start ranging between 1793 and 1835. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways, confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1857 and 1870.

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