TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – May 18, 2022

Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.sc/2022/05/17/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-chart-may-17-2022/

AUDUSD – Potential uptrend?

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has been finding resistance around 0.7040.

AUDUSD has formed a short series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows, suggesting a potential uptrend. The moving averages confirm the potential upside – they are bullish and widening.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6950 and 0.6880. A bullish move may stall or reverse around 0.7040, 0.7125 and 0.7170.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has increased rates by 0.25% to 0.35% – the first rate hike since November 2010. Further rate hikes may be necessary to combat rising inflation.

The Federal Reserve has raised the official funds rate by 0.50% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The rate is currently set at 1.00%. The increase in rates is to tackle rising inflation. The Fed currently plan to increase rates by an additional 0.50% over it’s next couple of meetings. The war in Ukraine and COVID lockdowns in China may impact US economic activity.

Australian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 0130 UTC.

EURGBP – Down-trending

Price has been bullish.

EURGBP is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages suggest that the downtrend could continue – they are bearish and steady. Price is also down-trending on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.8465, 0.8480 and 0.8525. A bearish move could find support around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal support levels at 0.8405 and 0.8370.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices – the UK and Europe possibly being the most impacted by rising inflation. Speculators and traders expect the ECB to raise interest rates in July and September of this year.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate again by 0.25% – to 1.00%. This is the 4th consecutive rate hike by the BOE. Further rate hikes are expected. Post Brexit, Post COVID and the war in Ukraine are having a major impact on UK inflation and economic activity. Some economists are expecting the UK to enter recession by the end of 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Market indecision?

EURUSD has been bullish.

Price has swung higher but continues to look indecisive. The moving averages are currently bullish and widening, suggesting that the upside direction may continue.

Trading opportunities could exist around the previous diagonal resistance area, around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0355, 1.0415, 1.0485, 1.0565, 1.0590 and 1.0625.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Uptrend?

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, GBPUSD has been bullish.

Price is now in a retrace phase. Price action has formed a higher swing high and is above the moving averages, signalling a potential uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the bullish momentum could continue. GBPUSD is clearly down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bearish move.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2425, 1.2390 and 1.2265. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around 1.2490 and 1.2605.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Possible downtrend? Market indecision?

Price has been bearish, as suggested in our last analysis.

The USDCAD has formed a potential downtrend but is also looking quite choppy and indecisive. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downside direction may continue. Price is currently ranging between 1.2805 and 1.2850.

Trading opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2720, 1.2805, 1.2850, 1.2905, 1.2930 and 1.2975.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

A Canadian CPI figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – Further downside?

As suggested in our last chart analysis, the USDCHF has been bearish.

Price has been up-trending for weeks. The USDCHF is finally showing signs of potential bearish momentum – price has swung below the moving averages and has formed a strong bearish move. The moving averages have crossed bearish, suggesting that the downside momentum could continue. USDCHF continues to uptrend on higher time-frames though, signalling that the uptrend on the 1 hour time-frame may continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9970, 0.9995 and 1.0055. A bearish move may find support around 0.9920, 0.9880 and 0.9830.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. Just like other economies, the Swiss economy is feeling the impact of rising costs – inflation is on the upside – though not as aggressive as it’s European counterparts. The increase in inflation could see the SNB increase rates, though no hike is currently forecast or expected.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Indecision. Further downside?

Price has been moving sideways, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

The USDJPY is indecisive and is ranging between 128.85 and 129.60. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price continues to look overbought on higher time-frames, suggesting a potential bearish move.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 129.85, 130.45 and 130.75. A bearish move may find support around 127.95 and 127.10.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – End of the downtrend?

As suggested in our previous analysis, price has been bearish.

GOLD is clearly down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. XAUUSD has been down-trending for multiple weeks (since mid-April 2022), suggesting that price may be due a bullish move. The moving averages are starting to tighten and move sideways, signalling market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1795, 1835, 1855, 1870 and 1890.

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