TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – April 26, 2022


Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.sc/2022/04/25/triumphfx-intraday-forex-analysis-1-hour-charts-april-25-2022/

AUDUSD – Down-trending

AUDUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our previous chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been in a retrace move.

Price is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The AUDUSD is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous swing low at 0.7345. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing low at 0.7140.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

Australian CPI figures will be released at 0130 UTC.

EURGBP – Up-trending. Possible bearish move?

EURGBP 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP was bullish and swung higher, as suggested in our previous analysis.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. EURGBP is down-trending on higher time-frames though and is currently at key resistance, suggesting a potential bearish move lower.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8375, 0.8360, 0.8335 and 0.8330. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.8440.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – Continuation of downtrend?

EURUSD 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways.

The EURUSD was down-trending and then entered a consolidation. Price is currently below a recent consolidation area and is forming a lower swing low, all suggesting that the downtrend could now continue. The moving averages confirm this – they are bearish and widening. EURUSD is looking over-extended on higher time-frames though, suggesting a potential bullish move.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.0765 and 1.0820. The EURUSD could find support around the recent lows and psychological level at 1.0700.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – Down-trend? Possibly over-extended?

GBPUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last analysis, price has been bullish.

The GBPUSD has formed a strong bearish move, signalling a potential downtrend. Price is currently in a retrace move. GBPUSD is looking oversold on higher time-frames and is testing key support, suggesting that the sell may be over – price may become bullish.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around 1.2700 and 1.2980.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – Potential uptrend

USDCAD 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD has been bearish.

Price action has formed a large bullish move and a higher swing high, signalling a potential uptrend. The moving averages are bullish and widening – confirming the potential uptrend. USDCAD is currently in a retrace move.

Long opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average, around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous diagonal resistance area as support and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.2665 and 1.2640. A bullish move could find resistance around 1.2775.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.50% to 1.00% – it’s second consecutive rate hike. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. Another rate increase is expected in the near future. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – Up-trending. Possible retrace move?

USDCHF 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in our last chart analysis, USDCHF is struggling to swing higher.

Price is clearly up-trending and is moving within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. USDCHF is looking a little over-extended and is currently struggling to swing higher, suggesting that upside momentum may be weakening – it could be time for a retrace move. Price action is forming a potential range at 0.9550-0.9590.

Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9550, 0.9525, 0.9515 and 0.9455. A bullish move may find resistance and even reverse around 0.9590 and around the bullish channel resistance area.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – Up-trending. Time for a bearish retrace move?

USDJPY 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish, as suggested in yesterday’s analysis.

USDJPY has been strongly up-trending since the beginning of April 2022. Price is now in a retrace move. For the first time since the uptrend started price has closed below the moving averages, suggesting that upside momentum may be weakening – the uptrend may becoming to an end. The USDJPY continues to uptrend on higher time-frames, signalling that price may move higher.

Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal support area, around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 125.20, 126.15, 127.65, 128.90 and 129.30.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – Down-trending

XAUUSD 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s analysis, price has been bearish.

GOLD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Selling opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1918, 1940 and 1955. A bearish move could find support around 1895.

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