TriumphFX – Forex Analysis – JPY Pairs – April, May & June 2022

Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.sc/2021/12/31/triumphfx-forex-analysis-jpy-pairs-january-february-march-2022/

AUDJPY – Daily Chart – Uptrend

AUDJPY has been bullish.

Price was looking indecisive but is now bullish. AUDJPY has formed a short series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows and has swung above the consolidation resistance area, all suggesting that the upside direction could continue. The daily moving averages are bullish and steady, adding confidence to the continued upside direction. AUDJPY is also up-trending and above moving averages on higher time-frames.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 86.00, 85.30, 84.00 and 80.50.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is making a steady but moderate recovery from the COVID crisis. Inflation is a concern though, especially with the rising prices of energy and raw materials.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

CADJPY – Daily Chart – Up-trending. Possible retrace move?

Price has been bullish and has swung higher, as suggested in our last chart analysis.

CADJPY is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a long series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Price is currently forming a swing higher. The current move is looking a little over-extended, suggesting a potential retrace move. The moving averages signal that the upside trend could continue – they are bullish and steady.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 92.80, 91.70, 89.75 and 87.75.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.25% to 0.50%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

EURJPY – Daily Chart – Indecision. Possible bearish move?

As suggested in our previous analysis, the EURJPY has been moving sideways.

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price action has formed a short series of lower swing highs and a diagonal resistance area, suggesting that EURJPY could become bearish.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 125.00, 127.45, 128.40, 132.40, 133.45 and 133.95.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

GBPJPY – Daily Chart – Potential uptrend?

GBPJPY reversed around the range resistance area, as suggested in our last JPY chart analysis.

Price was indecisive and had been ranging. Recent price action has been bullish though and has swung above the consolidation resistance area, suggesting a potential uptrend. The daily moving averages confirm this – they are becoming bullish. GBPJPY is also up-trending on the weekly time-frame, adding confidence to the potential upside move.

Buying opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around any of the horizontal levels at 158.00, 157.40, 153.40, 151.25 and 149.00.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

USDJPY – Daily Chart – Clearly up-trending. Possible retrace move?

As suggested in our last JPY analysis, price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has been bullish.

The USDJPY is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a long series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. Price is currently forming a new swing high. The USDJPY is looking a little over-extended, suggesting that price could be due a bearish retrace move. The daily moving averages continue to be bullish, suggesting that the uptrend could continue.

Long opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support areas and around any of the horizontal levels at 116.20, 115.50, 113.50 and 112.80. Price could find resistance and reverse around the current highs at 112.30.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

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