TriumphFX – Forex Analysis – CHF Pairs – April, May & June 2022

Previous analysis… https://analysis.tfxi.sc/2021/12/24/triumphfx-forex-analysis-chf-pairs-january-february-march-2022/

AUDCHF – Daily Chart – Possible uptrend?

As suggested in our last CHF chart analysis, price was indecisive and moved sideways.

Recent price action has been bullish though and is forming a swing higher, suggesting a potential uptrend. The moving averages signal market indecision though – they are tightening. The AUDCHF is also indecisive on higher time-frames.

Long opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous diagonal resistance area (as support), around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6800, 0.6675, 0.6500 and 0.6400. A bullish move may stall or reverse around 0.6900, 0.6980, 0.7030, 0.7150 and 0.7225.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 0.10%. The rate is could stay the same for the near future – possibly until 2024. This is due to global uncertainties post COVID and the war in Ukraine. The unemployment is expected to fall throughout the remaining of 2022.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The SNB will continue to keep ultra-loose monetary policy in order to provide support to the Swiss economy. The bank continues to intervene with Foreign Exchange markets with regard to temper the value of the Swiss Franc.

CADCHF – Daily Chart – Indecision

CADCHF reversed around 0.7120 and has been indecisive, as suggested in our last CHF analysis.

Price continues to lack trend direction and move in a sideways direction. Price action has formed a range at 0.7120-0.7510. The daily moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been moving sideways. The CADCHF is also indecisive on higher time-frames, providing no clear indication of future price direction.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the horizontal levels at 0.7120, 0.7175, 0.7340, 0.7475 and 0.7500.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) has raised it’s interest rate by 0.25% to 0.50%. The BOC are expecting economic indicators to continue to improve, though the war in Ukraine may have an impact on economic growth. A rate increase is currently expected mid-2022. Inflation targets continue to be a priority and the BOC expect inflation to continue to be elevated during 2022.

EURCHF – Daily Chart – Clear downtrend

As suggested in our previous analysis, price reversed around the 50.0% Fib level and has been bearish.

EURCHF is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a long series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. Price has recently formed another swing lower and is now in a retrace move. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend could continue. EURCHF is around key support on the monthly time-frame, signalling that price could become bullish.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.0340, 1.0500, 1.0600, 1.0700 and 1.0930. A bearish move could find support around the recent swing low at 1.0000.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continues to keep the official rate at the record low of 0.00%. The ECB expect the war in Ukraine to have an economical and inflationary impact, due to higher energy and commodity prices.

GBPCHF – Daily Chart – Downtrend

The GBPCHF has been bearish, as suggested in our previous chart analysis.

Price action has formed a long series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows – price is clearly down-trending. The moving averages confirm the downtrend – they are bearish and steady. The GBPCHF has also been down-trending on higher time-frames but is starting to look indecisive, suggesting potential indecision on the daily chart. Price may start ranging between 1.2100 and 1.2600.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2590, 1.2730, 1.2825 and 1.3030. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the potential range support at 1.2100.

The Bank of England (BOE) have increased it’s official bank rate by 0.25% to 0.75%. The official rate is now at pre-COVID levels. Inflation is a concern. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflationary pressures on UK households.

USDCHF – Daily Chart – Uptrend? Possible market indecision?

As suggested in our last CHF analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher.

USDCHF was indecisive for awhile and was ranging between 0.9090 and 0.9355. Recent price action has been bullish again though – price seems to be up-trending again. The weekly time-frame is showing market indecision though and the daily moving averages are tight and moving sideways, all suggesting that the USDCHF could become indecisive again.

Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area, and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.9160, 0.9090, 0.9035 and 0.8945. A bullish move could find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9355 and 0.9440.

The Federal Reserve have stated that they will do everything they can to support the US economy and to help a robust recovery post COVID. The funds rate has been raised by 0.25% to 0.50%. The Fed current plans to raise interest rates each meeting until the end of the year, forecasting the rate to be around 1.9% by the end of 2022. The war in Ukraine is likely to increase inflation pressures on the US economy.

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BYSamuel Morton ONMarch 23, 2022 POSTED INDaily FX Analysis TAGGED AUDCHF CADCHF EURCHF GBPCHF