TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 14, 2020
AUDUSD
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the 61.8% Fib level and the trend support area.
The AUDUSD is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages have crossed bearish, suggesting that price could struggle to swing higher.
Opportunities to go long may exist around the 61.8% Fib level, around the trend support area and around the horizontal support at 0.7100. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.7205 and 0.7240.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have kept rates at 0.25% (a record low). Policymakers are now focused on economic recovery created by the COVID-19 crisis. The board believe they recovery will be both uneven and bumpy. Low rates and economic stimulus is likely to continue until unemployment levels and other economic indicators are more satisfactory.
The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.
The Governor of the RBA will speak at 2145 UTC today. Australian employment change and unemployment rate figures will be released at 0030 UTC.
EURGBP
Price has found resistance around 0.9120, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.
The EURGBP is looking choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is also indecisive on higher time-frames, providing no clear indication of future price direction.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9025, 0.9075, 0.9120, 0.9155 and 0.9210.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has recently become more optimistic about the Eurozone’s economic future. Strong economic stimulus and low interest rates will need to remain to support growth and inflation though. The interest rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%.
The Bank of England (BOE) has set the interest rate at a record low of 0.10%. Policymakers believe that the UK will take longer to recover from the COVID-19 economic crisis than first initially thought. They have warned about cutting rates below 0.00%, meaning that a negative rate is unlikely in the near future.
There is no major scheduled news today which will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD found support around 1.1725.
Price has swung below the bullish channel support area and is forming a lower swing low, all suggesting that the recent uptrend is now over. The moving averages confirm this – they have crossed bearish. Price could now become indecisive.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous bullish channel support area (as resistance) and around any of the horizontal levels at 1.1680, 1.1695, 1.1725, 1.1780 and 1.1830.
The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.
The European Central Bank (ECB) has recently become more optimistic about the Eurozone’s economic future. Strong economic stimulus and low interest rates will need to remain to support growth and inflation though. The interest rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%.
There is no major scheduled news today which will directly impact this currency pair.
GBPUSD
The GBPUSD found support around the bullish channel support area, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.
Price has swung below recent lows and below the bullish channel support area, suggesting that the recent uptrend may be over. The moving averages are crossing bearish – confirming potential downside.
Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous bullish channel support area (as resistance) and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2995 and 1.3070. A bearish move may stall or reverse around any of the horizontal levels at 1.2865, 1.2815, 1.2785 and 1.2695.
The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.
The Bank of England (BOE) has set the interest rate at a record low of 0.10%. Policymakers believe that the UK will take longer to recover from the COVID-19 economic crisis than first initially thought. They have warned about cutting rates below 0.00%, meaning that a negative rate is unlikely in the near future.
There is no major scheduled news today which will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCAD
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the 23.6% Fib level and the longer-term moving average.
USDCAD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Price could start ranging between the horizontal levels at 1.3105 and 1.3145.
Shorting opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal level at 1.3250. A bearish move could find support around 1.3105.
The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to keep rates at the low of 0.25%. Policymakers have announced that there are signs of some recovery after the economic crisis caused by COVID-19 but the BOC will continue their quantitative easing program. The BOC are expecting to see economic growth from 2021 onward.
The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.
There is no major scheduled news today which will directly impact this currency pair.
USDCHF
Price has reversed around the trend resistance area, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.
USDCHF is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are tightening, signalling that downside momentum may be weakening – price may struggle to swing lower.
Selling opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9185 and 0.9210. A bearish move may find support around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9135, 0.9115 and 0.9085.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.
The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.
There is no major scheduled news today which will directly impact this currency pair.
USDJPY
USDJPY has been moving sideways.
Price is indecisive and is lacking trend direction. USDJPY could start ranging between 105.25 and 105.60. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that USDJPY could swing lower.
Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 105.05. A break to the upside could find resistance around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 105.80 and 106.05.
The Federal Reserve have suggested that rates may remain low for the short-term future. Rates currently remain at the low of 0.25%. Inflation is around target and the US job market continues to be robust.
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well under the current COVID-19 economic crisis.
There is no major scheduled news today which will directly impact this currency pair.
XAUUSD
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has reversed around the bullish channel support area and the horizontal level at 1883.
Price is up-trending within a large bullish channel. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways, signalling that GOLD may struggle to swing higher. Price is up-trending on higher time-frames.
Long opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1883 and 1876. A bullish move may find resistance around the moving averages, around the recent highs at 1931 and around the bullish channel resistance area.
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