TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 25, 2020

AUDUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, AUDUSD continues to find support around the bullish channel support area.

Price continues to be indecisive but move within a large bullish channel. AUDUSD is currently ranging between 0.7140 and 0.7210. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the bullish channel support area, around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 0.7115. A break to the upside may find resistance around 0.7270.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP

EURGBP has found support around the moving averages, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price action is forming lower swing highs and lower swing lows – EURGBP is down-trending. Price is currently struggling to swing lower though and is finding support around the moving averages. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, suggesting market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9060, 0.9040 and 0.8950.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish.

EURUSD is currently down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downside momentum may continue.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1845, 1.1880 and 1.1955. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1.1760, 1.1715 and 1.1705.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

Price broke below the range support area and then found support 1.3050, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

GBPUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages are currently bearish and steady, signalling that price could attempt a bearish move lower.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal support area and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.2985, 1.3015, 1.3050, 1.3140 and 1.3255.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD reversed around the range support area and now is finding resistance around the range resistance area.

Price continues to be indecisive and range between 1.3140 and 1.3235. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCAD closes out of the range. A break to the upside may be rejected or reverse around any of the identified horizontal resistance levels at 1.3265, 1.3345 and 1.3395.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF

The USDCHF has been moving sideways.

Price continues to move within a large bearish channel and also be indecisive. The moving averages are currently bullish and steady, signalling potential upside.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the support and resistance areas of the bearish channel and around the horizontal levels at 0.9015, 0.9060, 0.9135, 0.9150 and 0.9195.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

Price continues to be indecisive.

Just like other USD pairs, the USDJPY is indecisive and lacking trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price may start ranging between 105.50 and 106.10.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the potential range and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 106.35 and 106.95. A break to the downside may find support around the lows at 105.15.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal level at 1953.

GOLD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are currently tight – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1879, 1908, 1916, 1953, 2014 and 2047.

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