TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 18, 2020

AUDUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around 0.7240.

The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction – price is looking very choppy. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision – but are currently bullish and widening, suggesting a potential move higher.

Trading opportunities may exist around any of the horizontal levels at 0.7115, 0.7140, 0.7185 and 0.7240. If the AUDUSD closes above 0.7240, price could attempt a bullish move higher.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP

Price has reversed around the range resistance area, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

The EURGBP continues to range between the recent lows at 0.8970 and the horizontal resistance area at 0.9060. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price action has formed a bullish channel, signalling that the EURGBP may attempt a move higher.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and bullish channel and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 0.9080 and 0.9135.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been finding resistance around the horizontal channel resistance area.

Price continues to be indecisive, just like other USD pairs. The EURUSD is moving within a large horizontal channel at 1.1700-1.1900 and is currently at the channel resistance area. The moving averages are currently bullish and steady, suggesting that price could attempt a move higher.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if the EURUSD moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

The GBPUSD has been finding resistance around the range resistance area, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price continues to be indecisive and range between 1.2985 and 1.3175. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the GBPUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade).

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed off the shorter-term moving average and has swung lower.

USDCAD is down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. Price has formed a bearish channel and USDCAD is moving within the channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside direction could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3195, 1.3265 and 1.3345. A strong bearish move could stall or reverse around the channel support area.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF

Price has been bearish and has moved lower, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

USDCHF is slightly choppy but is down-trending. Price action has formed a large bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance level at 0.9120. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the bearish channel support area.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, USDJPY is finding resistance around 105.35.

Price has been bearish but overall is looking indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 105.35, 106.35 and 106.95.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD

GOLD has been bullish.

Price is moving higher and has formed a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the bullish channel support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1959, 1932 and 1908. A bullish move may find resistance around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 2047 and 2070.

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