TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 23, 2020

AUDUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the 23.6% Fib level and swung higher.

AUDUSD is clearly up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. Price is around a key higher time-frame resistance area, signalling that AUDUSD may attempt a bearish move.

Opportunities to go long could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the support and resistance areas of the recent bullish channel. An attempt to swing higher may find resistance around 0.7170.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their April 2020 meeting. Rates were cut by a further 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.25% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate the economy due to COVID-19 recession fears. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market and inflation. Rates will not be raised until targets are met.

The Federal Reserve has announced a record breaking stimulus package, aimed at US households and employers. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has unexpectedly cut rates by 150 points due to heightened concerns regarding the COVID-19 outbreak. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 0.25%, back at post-2008 levels. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The USD has been acting as a safe haven amid the COVID-19 outbreak. There are some concerns that the COVID-19 pandemic may hit the US hardest, causing a reversal of the recent USD strength.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP

Price has reversed around the horizontal level at 0.9135, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

EURGBP continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9000 and 0.9135.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Rates have not been cut into negative territory, despite the COVID-19 outbreak. Instead, the ECB has launched an asset buying program. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The COVID-19 pandemic is just another economic challenge for the Euro zone.

The Bank of England (BOE) has followed other central banks and has cut rates to combat economic challenges caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. The UK interest rate is now set at 0.10% (a historic low). The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, EURUSD has continued to be bullish.

Price is clearly up-trending – price action has formed a series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows. The moving averages are bullish and widening, suggesting that the uptrend may continue. EURUSD is looking a little overbought, signalling that a bearish retrace move may be due.

Long opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1460, 1.1415 and 1.1370. Price may continue to find resistance around 1.1595.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD

GBPUSD has been bullish and has found resistance around 1.2760, as all suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside direction could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2655 and 1.2635. GBPUSD could be rejected or reverse around the recent highs at 1.2760.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bearish and has swung lower.

The USDCAD is down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downtrend may continue. Price is around potential support on higher time-frames, signalling that the USDCAD may attempt a bullish move.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the bearish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3430, 1.3475, 1.3495 and 1.3500.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) followed the US by slashing it’s benchmark interest rate. The intent of the rate cut is to help boost the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The current rate is now 0.25%. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential. If coronavirus fears deescalate, the BOC could increase rates again in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF

The USDCHF continues to be bearish, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9340, 0.9365 and 0.9375.

The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant. The economy was showing signs of positive momentum but COVID-19 is causing the economic to contraction. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued as a safe-haven currency. The SNB recently announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY

Price has reversed off the horizontal channel support area, as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis.

The USDJPY continues to be indecisive and move within a large horizontal channel at 106.70-107.40. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade).

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion. COVID-19 recession fears could stunt economic growth though.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD