TriumphFX Forex Analysis – EUR Pairs – February 2020

EURAUD – Daily & 4 Hour Charts

Price has been moving within a large daily bullish channel but is currently looking indecisive. The EURAUD is ranging on the daily time-frame – price is ranging between 1.5915 and 1.6625. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

EURAUD is looking indecisive on the 4 hour time-frame also – price has no clear trend direction. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing sideways and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the 4 hour and daily moving averages, around the daily bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.6085, 1.6300 and 1.6590.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their October 2019 meeting. Rates were cut by 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.75% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market. It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further.

EURCAD – Daily & 4 Hour Charts

The EURCAD has been clearly down-trending on the daily time-frame – price has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs. EURCAD has formed a bearish channel and price has been moving within the channel. The EURCAD recently closed below a consolidation support area at 1.4430, suggesting that the downside momentum could continue. The daily moving averages confirm this – they are bearish and steady.

On the 4 hour time-frame, price has been bearish. EURCAD has recent swung below a number of key swing lows and support levels, signalling that price could start down-trending again. The moving averages are becoming bearish – confirming the downside momentum.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.4430 and 1.4460, around the dynamic resistance of the 4 hour and daily moving averages and around the daily bearish channel resistance area.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

EURCHF – Daily & 4 Hour Charts

Just like EURCAD, EURCHF is clearly down-trending within a bearish channel (on the daily time-frame). The daily moving averages are bearish and steady, suggesting that the downtrend may continue.

The 4 hour chart also shows a clear downtrend. Price is currently moving within a tight bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the 4 hour and daily bearish moving averages, around the 4 hour bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.0670, 1.0775 and 1.0825. A bearish move may find support around the 4 hour channel support area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

EURGBP – Daily & 4 Hour Charts

Price has been bearish on the daily chart but is currently ranging between 0.8300 and 0.8575. The daily moving averages suggest that EURGBP could move lower – they are bearish and widening.

On the 4 hour chart, the EURGBP is down-trending and has formed a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside direction could continue.

Trading opportunities may exist around the daily support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). Selling opportunities may exist around the 4 hour and daily moving averages, around the horizontal and psychological level at 0.8400 and around the 4 hour bearish channel resistance area. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the 4 hour channel support area and around the daily range support area.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

EURJPY – Daily & 4 Hour Charts

EURJPY is clearly down-trending on the daily time-frame (just like other EUR pairs). Price is moving within a daily bearish channel. The daily moving averages are becoming bearish again, signalling that the EURJPY may attempt a bearish move lower.

Price is also down-trending on the 4 hour time-frame. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the 4 hour and daily moving averages, around the daily bearish channel resistance area, around the 4 hour trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 119.55, 119.85, 120.25 and 120.95. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around 117.10.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

EURNZD – Daily & 4 Hour Charts

The daily chart is showing signs of indecision – price is lacking trend momentum. The daily moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing and are moving sideways.

The 4 hour chart is also lacking trend direction.

Trading opportunities may exist around the daily and 4 hour moving averages, around the 4 hour diagonal support and resistance areas and around the horizontal levels at 1.6630, 1.6665, 1.6970, 1.7110 and 1.7165.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future but further cuts are currently being disregarded for the remainder of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

EURUSD – Daily & 4 Hour Charts

The EURUSD has been clearly down-trending on the daily time-frame. Price has been down-trending in a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

On the 4 hour time-frame, EURUSD has also been down-trending. Price has been very bearish. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downward direction may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the bearish moving averages on both 4 hour and daily charts, around the 4 hour trend resistance and around the horizontal levels at 1.0900 and 1.0005.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

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