TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 14, 2020
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, AUDUSD has become indecisive and has been moving sideways. Price has been down-trending and is currently moving in a large bearish channel. The AUDUSD is currently indecisive though and is ranging between 0.6710-0.6750. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. Price action has formed a large horizontal channel at 0.6665-0.6775.
Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if AUDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal channel resistance at 0.6775. A break to the downside could find support around the bearish channel support area and around the horizontal channel support at 0.6665.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their October 2019 meeting. Rates were cut by 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.75% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market. It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.
US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
EURGBP has been bearish and has swung lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is clearly down-trending – EURGBP has formed a series of lower swing lows and lower swing highs. Price is below the recent bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all signalling that the downtrend may continue. EURGBP is around a weekly channel support area, suggesting that price may attempt a bullish move before moving lower.
Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous bearish channel support area, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support at 0.8385. Price may continue to find support around 0.8300.
The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.
A German preliminary GDP figure will be announced at 0700 UTC today.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. EURUSD has been finding support around the bearish channel support area (as also suggested), signalling that price could start a retrace move. EURUSD is clearly down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Price is looking over-extended on higher time-frames, suggesting that a bullish move could form before attempting to swing lower.
Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish channel resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0905 and 1.0920. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area.
The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.
A German preliminary GDP figure will be announced at 0700 UTC today. US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has failed to swing lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GBPUSD has been bullish – the recent downtrend is now over. The moving averages are bullish and widening and price action has formed a series of higher swing lows, all suggesting that GBPUSD may start up-trending.
Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2985, 1.2950 and 1.2905. A bullish move may find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3065 and 1.3145.
The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.
US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
The NZDUSD has been bearish. Price is looking indecisive and is lacking clear market direction. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and are moving sideways.
Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.6380, 0.6485, 0.6500 and 0.6550.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future but further cuts are currently being disregarded for the remainder of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.
US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has been finding resistance around 1.3265. Price is down-trending and has formed a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue.
Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous horizontal support at 1.3265 and around the bearish channel resistance area. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal support levels at 1.3240 and 1.3190.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.
US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
Price closed above the range resistance area and has since been bullish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). USDCHF has formed a short series of higher swing highs and higher swing lows, all suggesting that price could start up-trending.
Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9785 and 0.9740.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.
US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDJPY has reversed around the range support area. Price is indecisive and is moving sideways. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 109.55-110.10.
Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the USDJPY moves out of the channel (break-out trade).
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.
US retail sales figures will be released at 1330 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been finding resistance around the range resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). GOLD is still indecisive. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 1562 and the horizontal resistance at 1577.
Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade).
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