TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 12, 2020

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, AUDUSD has been bullish and has retraced further. Price is down-trending within a bearish channel and is currently in a retrace move. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways, suggesting market indecision – the AUDUSD could start ranging.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 0.6775. An attempt to swing lower could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages, around the recent swing low at 0.6665 and around the bearish channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their October 2019 meeting. Rates were cut by 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.75% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market. It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC today.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP has been bearish. Price has been moving within a large consolidation area on both the lower and higher time-frames. Recent price action has been bearish though and the EURGBP has formed a potential bearish channel, suggesting that price may start down-trending. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they are bearish and widening. If price starts to retrace, there could be some profitable shorting opportunities as price attempts to swing lower.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8440, 0.8470 and 0.8500. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the bearish channel support area and around the consolidation support area at 0.8385.

A UK preliminary GDP figure will be released at 0930 UTC today. The President of the ECB will speak at 1400 UTC. The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1535 UTC.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support and is attempting to retrace some of the recent bearish move. EURUSD is at a key higher time-frame support area and price has moved above the recent bearish channel resistance area, all suggesting that a bullish retrace move could be due. The moving averages are bearish and steady and the EURUSD is down-trending on higher time-frames, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support at 1.0990. A bearish move could find support around the recent lows and support at 1.0905 and around the support and resistance areas of the previous bearish channel.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

The President of the ECB will speak at 1400 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price found resistance around the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis) but has since moved higher. GBPUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are tightening and are crossing bullish, signalling that an attempt to swing lower may fail – the downtrend may becoming to an end.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the horizontal resistance at 1.3065. A bearish move may find support and even reverse around the moving averages and around the recent swing low at 1.2875.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

A UK preliminary GDP figure will be released at 0930 UTC today. The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC. The Governor of the BOE will speak at 1535 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The NZDUSD has been bullish. Price has swung above the recent bearish channel resistance, signalling that downside momentum is weakening – the downtrend could becoming to an end. The moving averages confirm this – they are tightening and becoming more bullish. The NZDUSD is still down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that an uptrend could face some strong resistance.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the previous bearish channel resistance area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the recent lows at 0.6380. A bullish move could find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6500, 0.6550 and 0.6585.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future but further cuts are currently being disregarded for the remainder of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC today. The RBNZ will release a monetary policy statement and a rate statement at 0100 UTC. This is followed by a press conference at 0200 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD has been bearish. Price has been clearly up-trending. The USDCAD is currently in a retrace phase. Price action is forming a horizontal channel at 1.3265-1.3325, signalling market indecision. The moving averages confirm the potential indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. USDCAD is around a key resistance area on higher time-frames, signalling that the uptrend may now be over.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the horizontal levels at 1.3190 and 1.3155. A break to the upside may quickly reverse and become bearish.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been finding support around the 23.6% Fib level (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF recently formed a large bullish move with a swing higher than previous swings, suggesting that price could start up-trending. USDCHF has since been in a retrace move.

Long opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal resistance at 0.9720. A bullish move could find resistance around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the recent highs and swing high at 0.9785.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the range resistance area. The USDJPY is indecisive and is ranging between the recent swing high and psychological level at 110.00 and the recent swing low at 109.55. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the current indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 109.25 and 109.10.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will testify at 1500 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1549, 1564, 1576 and 1593.

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