TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – February 05, 2020

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed above the tight range resistance area and has since been bullish. The AUDUSD is clearly down-trending – price action has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows – AUDUSD is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages have crossed bullish, signalling that price may struggle to swing lower.

Selling opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.6775 and 0.6830. An attempt to swing lower may find support around the moving averages and around the recent swing low at 0.6685.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cut rates again in their October 2019 meeting. Rates were cut by 0.25%, bringing the official bank rate to 0.75% (a record low). Rates have since stayed the same. The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy. The RBA will continue to monitor the labour market. It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC. Australian retail sales and trade balance figures will be released at 0030 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price found support around the shorter-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP has since moved below the moving average though. Price is looking indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.8385, 0.8480, 0.8535, 0.8550 and 0.8570.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

The President of the ECB will speak at 1215 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

The EURUSD has been bearish. Price has moved back below the moving averages, suggesting that there will not be an uptrend. EURUSD is looking indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames, suggesting that price may attempt a bearish move lower.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0990, 1.1095 and 1.1115.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.  The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

The President of the ECB will speak at 1215 UTC today. A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1315 UTC. This is followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD reversed around the consolidation support area at 1.2950. Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossed frequently and are moving sideways. GBPUSD is also indecisive on higher time-frames, providing no clear indication of where price could go next.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 1.2945, 1.2985, 1.3145 and 1.3205.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The UK has now left the EU, meaning that Brexit uncertainty should weigh less heavily on the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are tightening and becoming more bullish, suggesting that either NZDUSD may struggle to swing lower or that NZDUSD may retrace further before attempting to swing lower. Price is down-trending on higher time-frames, adding confidence that the current downtrend may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal resistance at 0.6550. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the recent swing low at 0.6450.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly have kept rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. Further cuts could happen during 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has since been bullish. USDCAD is clearly up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside direction could continue. Price is nearing a key resistance on higher time-frames though, suggesting that a bearish move could be imminent.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3265, 1.3190 and 1.3155. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent highs and resistance at 1.3300.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

USDCHF continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are currently moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.9620, 0.9630, 0.9715 and 0.9760.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY has been bullish and has swung higher. Price has moved above the recent swing highs and is forming a higher high, suggesting that the recent downtrend could be over. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, signalling potential upside. The USDJPY is up-trending within a bullish channel on higher time-frames, suggesting that price could also start up-trending on the lower time-frames.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 109.25 and 109.10. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 109.65 and 109.80.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. Overall, the US economy is performing well and inflation is at an acceptable rate. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is performing well and showing signs of expansion.

A US non-farm employment change figure will be announced at 1315 UTC today. This is followed by a US non-manufacturing PMI figure at 1500 UTC.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found support around the horizontal level at 1551. GOLD has been bearish and has swung below the recent bullish channel support area. Price action is now forming a lower swing low and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that GOLD may start down-trending. Price is also looking a little choppy, suggesting that GOLD may become indecisive.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the previous bearish channel support area and around the previous horizontal support levels at 1564 and 1572. An attempt to swing lower may find support around the horizontal support levels at 1551 and 1537.

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