TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – January 21, 2020

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been bearish and has swung lower. Price is still a little indecisive and could start ranging between the horizontal support and recent lows at 0.6850 and the horizontal level at 0.6925. AUDUSD is still forming lower swing lows and lower swing highs, signalling that the recent downside direction may continue. The moving averages are bearish and widening – confirming the potential downside.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the horizontal level at 0.6885 and if price closes below the potential range support at 0.6850. Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the potential range.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP reversed around the diagonal resistance area and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has been very choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Recent price action has been bearish – EURGBP has formed a series of lower swing highs and lower swing lows – suggesting that price could start down-trending.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.8550 and 0.8570. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse and become indecisive around the horizontal support levels at 0.8505 and 0.8480.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the shorter-term moving average. The EURUSD continues to be bearish and downtrend. Price is moving within a large bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue. EURUSD may retrace before moving lower.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1110 and 1.1165. A bearish move may stall or reverse around 1.1080 and around the channel support area.

The European Central Bank (ECB) continue to keep rates at the record low of 0.00%. Due to weak trade growth and economic forecasts, rates are likely to stay low for the foreseeable future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around the horizontal support and recent low at 1.2965 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD is down-trending within a large bearish channel. Price is currently in a retrace phase. Price action is forming a higher swing low and a horizontal channel at 1.2965-1.3095, signalling that the current downtrend could becoming to an end – GBPUSD could becoming indecisive. The moving averages confirm this – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Selling opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the bearish channel resistance area.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. There is some concern that rates will be cut due to the concern in the job market. The BOE’s approach with Brexit is still ‘wait and see what happens’. Brexit continues to cause volatile movements in GBP pairs. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, NZDUSD has been finding support around the range support area. Price has recently closed below the range support, signalling that NZDUSD may attempt a bearish move lower. The moving averages confirm the potential downside – they have crossed bearish and are widening.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6595 and 0.6655.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly have kept rates at the record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. Further cuts could happen during 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

USDCAD has been reversing off the horizontal channel support and resistance areas (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The USDCAD has been moving sideways and has formed a horizontal channel at 1.3035-1.3075. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the current indecision. Recent price action has been bullish though and has formed a clear higher swing low, signalling that USDCAD could attempt a break to the upside of the channel.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the diagonal support area, around the moving averages and if price closes above the channel resistance at 1.3075. Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel. A break to the upside could find resistance around 1.3095. A break to the downside could find support around 1.3015.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price is struggling to swing lower. USDCHF has formed a swing lower and is currently in a retrace phase – the USDCHF could be down-trending. The current retrace move is above the moving averages though and the moving averages have crossed bullish, suggesting that price could struggle to swing lower.

Selling opportunities may exist around 61.8% Fib level and around the recent swing high at 0.9695. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9650 and 0.9620.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy. The current Fed Funds rate is currently 1.75%. The current monetary plan is to keep the rate unchanged for the foreseeable future. There is some concern that keeping rates low could cause greater issues in the US’ financial sector. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy continues to be stagnant but has been showing signs of positive momentum. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets but will likely keep rates unchanged until at least 2021.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

Price has become indecisive and has started ranging (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. The USDJPY is ranging between the horizontal support at 109.80 and the recent highs at 110.25.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade).

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD was finding resistance around the range resistance area. Price has since moved above the range resistance, suggesting that price may start up-trending.

Long opportunities could exist around the horizontal support levels at 1548, 1544 and 1537. A bullish move could find resistance around the horizontal resistance levels at 1562, 1579 and 1599.

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