TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – December 20, 2019


 

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has been finding resistance around 0.6900. The AUDUSD is up-trending. The moving averages have just crossed bullish, suggesting that the upward direction may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6865, 0.6840 and 0.6815. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6900 and 0.6930.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

 

 

Price reversed around the shorter-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are bullish and steady though, signalling that price could attempt a bullish move.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, if price closes above the recent highs at 0.8570 and around the horizontal levels at 0.8515, 0.8455 and 0.8395. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent highs at 0.8570.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. The Conservative party have won a parliament majority, given hope that the UK Prime Ministers Brexit deal can now be agreed. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

A UK current account figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today.

 

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has reversed off the previous trend support area and also the horizontal level at 1.1105. Price is down-trending but is struggling to swing lower. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1170 and 1.1185. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1.1105 and 1.1050.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

The GBPUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price action has formed a bearish channel and is down-trending. The moving averages suggest that the downside momentum will continue – they are bearish and steady.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the bearish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3070, 1.3115 and 1.3225. A bearish move could find support around the channel support area.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. The Conservative party have won a parliament majority, given hope that the UK Prime Ministers Brexit deal can now be agreed. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

A UK current account figure will be announced at 0930 UTC today.

 

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal resistance at 0.6610. The NZDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.6620, 0.6610, 0.6575, 0.6555, 0.6520 and 0.6505. If price closes above 0.6620, the NZDUSD may move higher.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

 

Price is clearly down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, suggesting that the downtrend could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3150, 1.3180 and 1.3200. An attempt to swing lower could stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal support levels at 1.3120 and 1.3110.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

A Canadian retail sales figure will be released at 1330 UTC today.

 

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF has been bearish and has moved lower. Price is down-trending in a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the bearish moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9795, 0.9815, 0.9870 and 0.9895. A bearish move may find support around the recent lows at 0.9775 and the channel support area.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

 

The USDJPY continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are tight and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 108.80, 108.85, 108.95, 109.25 and 109.70.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

 

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the range resistance area. GOLD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price continues to range (1472-1481).

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1484. A break to the downside may find support around 1465 and 1459.

 

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