TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 21, 2019

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has swung higher. The AUDUSD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous trend resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 0.6805, 0.6775 and 0.6755.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around the longer-term moving average and has since been finding support around 0.8595 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP has been down-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 0.8595 and the horizontal resistance at 0.8695.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURGBP moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.8790 and 0.8850.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, given strength to the GBP. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD has been bullish and has swung higher. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.1055.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD has continued to find support around the shorter-term moving average and move higher (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the upside direction may continue.

If the GBPUSD starts retracing, opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.2770 and 1.2690. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance at 1.2980.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. Brexit deal talks are progressing positively, giving strength to the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has moved higher. NZDUSD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Buying opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 0.6345 and 0.6335.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be bearish and move lower (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD is clearly down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 1.3180, 1.3210 and 1.3235. An attempt to move lower may stall or reverse around the recent lows at 1.3120.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF has been bearish. Price has swung below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that the USDCHF could start down-trending.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the previous horizontal support levels at 0.9900, 0.9910 and 0.9925. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing low at 0.9840.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY has been up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages have crossed bearish, suggesting that price may struggle to swing higher.

A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 108.60 and 108.90. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 108.35, 108.15 and 107.80.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around 1496. GOLD has become indecisive and is lacking trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price is moving within a horizontal channel at 1478-1497.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if GOLD moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around 1515. A break to the downside could find support around 1461.

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