TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 08, 2019

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has reversed off the longer-term moving average. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. The AUDUSD is ranging between 0.6670 and 0.6775.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may stall or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.6800, 0.6810, 0.6830 and 0.6870.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1750 UTC today.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP has been finding resistance around the horizontal channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to be indecisive and move within the horizontal channel at 0.8850-0.8930. The moving averages are currently bullish, suggesting that the EURGBP could move higher.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Buying opportunities may exist around the diagonal support area.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been moving off the support and resistance areas of the range. The EURUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is ranging between the horizontal support at 1.0965 and the horizontal resistance at 1.1000.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the EURUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 1.0950 and 1.0905. A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.1025 and 1.1075.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1750 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Just like other USD pairs, the GBPUSD is indecisive and lacking trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.2205, 1.2270, 1.2330, 1.2400, 1.2415 and 1.2505.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1750 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has reversed around the longer-term moving average and horizontal level at 0.6285. Price continues to be indecisive and lack market direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.6205, 0.6255, 0.6270, 0.6285, 0.6330, 0.6345 and 0.6360.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1750 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

The USDCAD continues to retrace and be bearish. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are about to cross bearish, all suggesting that the downside momentum could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3300 and 1.3340. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3285 and 1.3280.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1750 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been reversing around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9930 and 0.9965. USDCHF continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is ranging between 0.9930 and 0.9965.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if USDCHF closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 0.9925 and 0.9900. A break to the upside may find resistance around 0.9980 and 1.0015.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1750 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been finding resistance around the 50.0% Fib level (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY is currently in a retrace phase and could attempt to swing lower. The bearish moving averages are tightening though, signalling that price could struggle to swing lower.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the 50.0% and 61.8% Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 107.55, 107.80 and 108.15. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 107.10 and 107.00.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1750 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD has been finding support around 1490. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages are tightening and have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1462, 1490, 1496, 1514 and 1534.

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