TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – October 07, 2019

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been bullish and has not been able to swing lower. AUDUSD is now looking indecisive. The moving averages have crossed bullish and are widening, signalling that price could attempt a bullish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.6670, 0.6715, 0.6745, 0.6775, 0.6800 and 0.6810.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates again by 0.25% to 0.75% (a record low). The current low rate is needed to help reduce the unemployment rate and stimulate economy . It is likely that official rate will stay low and may even be cut further. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1700 UTC today.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price has reversed around the horizontal resistance at 0.8930 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The EURGBP continues to be choppy but also uptrend. The moving averages confirm the slight indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price action has formed a horizontal channel at 0.8850-0.8930.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if the EURGBP moves out of the channel (break-out trade). Buying opportunities could exist around the trend support area.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, EURUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average. Price is now looking indecisive and has formed a tight range at 1.0965-1.0990. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the EURUSD could attempt a bullish move.

Trading opportunities may exist when price moves out of the tight range (break-out trade) and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.0880, 1.0905, 1.0950, 1.0965, 1.0990, 1.1025 and 1.1075. Buying opportunities may exist around the moving averages.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1700 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD found support around 1.2275 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price has become indecisive and is lacking trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the lack of trend direction – they are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2205, 1.2270, 1.2330, 1.2400, 1.2415 and 1.2505.

The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. The official rate could see a limited and gradual increase if there is a smooth Brexit and economic indicators continue to show growth. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1700 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the shorter-term moving average. The NZDUSD has become indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently. They are currently bullish and widening though, suggesting that price could swing higher.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6205, 0.6255, 0.6270, 0.6330, 0.6345 and 0.6360.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) have cut rates further to a record low of 1.00%. Due to poor economic indicators, there are no forecast rate hikes in the near future. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1700 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

Price reversed around 1.3300 (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD is above the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that price may start up-trending.

Buying opportunities could exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the longer-term moving average and around the previous horizontal resistance levels at 1.3300, 1.3285 and 1.3280. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.3340.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. The economy is currently performing well and inflation targets are currently at their potential, meaning that the rate of 1.75% may not change in the near future.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1700 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the USDCHF reversed off the horizontal level at 0.9925. Price has moved below the moving averages and trend support area, signalling that the recent uptrend is now over. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways, signalling potential indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the moving averages, around the previous trend support area (as resistance) and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.9850, 0.9900, 0.9925, 0.9945, 0.9965, 0.9980, 1.0015 and 1.0025.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1700 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY has formed a lower swing low and the moving averages are bearish and steady, all signalling that price may start down-trending. Price is currently in a retrace phase.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 107.00, 107.55 and 107.75. USDJPY may continue to find support around 106.65.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has cut rates by a further 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.00%. Pressures of economic recession and from the US President may lead to further rate reductions. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

The Chair of the Federal Reserve will speak at 1700 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently. GOLD is currently ranging between 1496 and 1514.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1490 and 1486. A break to the upside could find resistance around 1534.

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