TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – September 04, 2019

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bullish and is currently finding resistance around the horizontal resistance at 0.6780 (as identified in yesterday’s chart analysis). AUDUSD has swung above the recent bearish channel and the moving averages have crossed bullish, all suggesting that price may move higher.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6750 and 0.6740. AUDUSD may continue to find resistance around 0.6780 and may find resistance around 0.6800.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates by 0.25% to 1.00% (a record low). The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under low interest rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price moved above the channel resistance area and then swung higher. The EURGBP has since been bearish though and has re-entered the horizontal channel. Price action has formed a bullish channel and the moving averages are widening, all signalling that the EURGBP could attempt another bullish move.

Long opportunities may exist around the channel support area and around the horizontal support at 0.9020. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the moving averages, around the bullish channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9095, 0.9135 and 0.9180. If price closes below 0.9020, the EURGBP could attempt a bearish move lower.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

UK inflation report hearings is at 1315 UTC today.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

EURUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the trend resistance area, around any of the key Fib levels, around the longer-term moving average and around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.1055 and 1.1070. A bearish move may find support around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing low at 1.0930.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD has been bullish and has been retracing some of the recent bearish move. Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The GBPUSD is above the moving averages, suggesting that price could struggle to swing lower.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2170, 1.2210, 1.2245, 1.2255 and 1.2295. A bearish move could stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2120, 1.2075, 1.2045 and 1.1975.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

UK inflation report hearings is at 1315 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price attempted to swing lower and reversed around the horizontal support at 0.6285. The NZDUSD has since been bullish and has swung above key resistance areas, signalling a potential uptrend. The moving averages confirm this – they are crossing bullish.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous trend resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 0.6315 and 0.6285. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 0.6350 and 0.6405.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 1.50%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poorer than expected. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been finding support around the longer-term moving average and the previous horizontal resistance at 1.3320 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). USDCAD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the longer-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 1.3320, 1.3280 and 1.3255. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3345 and 1.3370.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy and economic outlook.

A Canadian trade balance figure will be released at 1230 UTC today. This is followed by a BOC rate statement and announcement at 1400 UTC.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF has been bearish. Price has moved below a number of key support areas and the moving averages are tightening, all suggesting that the recent uptrend is over.

Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the previous bullish channel support area (as resistance) and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9800, 0.9825, 0.9875 and 0.9925.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price has formed a range at 105.85 and 106.40. Price has also formed a bearish channel, signalling that the USDJPY could attempt a bearish move.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and the bearish channel and around the identified horizontal levels at 105.10, 105.65, 105.85, 106.40, 106.60 and 106.75.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price closed above the tight range resistance area and was then bullish. As also suggested, GOLD then reversed around the horizontal level at 1549. Price continues to be indecisive within a large bullish channel. GOLD has formed a horizontal channel within the bullish channel and price is ranging between 1518 and 1549.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the horizontal channel and if price moves out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around the bullish channel resistance area. A break to the downside may find support around the bullish channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1508, 1492 and 1486.

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