TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 28, 2019

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to look indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are crossing and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal resistance area and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.6695, 0.6740, 0.6755, 0.6780 and 0.6800.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates by 0.25% to 1.00% (a record low). The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under low interest rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be released at 1430 UTC today. An Australian private capital expenditure figure will be announced at 0130 UTC.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the trend resistance area and the longer-term moving average. EURGBP is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9040, 0.9100 and 0.9115.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The EURUSD has been bearish and has re-entered the recent consolidation. Price is looking indecisive again. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 1.1055, 1.1070, 1.1110, 1.1155 and 1.1165.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be released at 1430 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the GBPUSD has reversed around the longer-term moving average and has since been bullish. Price is up-trending within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2255, 1.2200 and 1.2175. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.2285 and 1.2295.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be released at 1430 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price reversed around the channel resistance area and the moving averages (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The NZDUSD has since been bearish and is currently finding support around the bearish channel support area (as also suggested). Price is down-trending within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6350, 0.6405 and 0.6425. The NZDUSD could continue to find support around the channel support area.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 1.50%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poorer than expected. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be released at 1430 UTC today. A business confidence figure for New Zealand will be announced at 0100 UTC.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price found resistance around the previous diagonal support area (as resistance). USDCAD has since moved higher though and is now looking indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision.

Trading opportunities could exist around any of the horizontal levels at 1.3195, 1.3215, 1.3230, 1.3255, 1.3280, 1.3325 and 1.3340.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy and economic outlook.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be released at 1430 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF has been bullish but continues to be indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 0.9720, 0.9775, 0.9815 and 0.9875.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be released at 1430 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

The USDJPY continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages have been crossing frequently – confirming the market indecision. Price is currently ranging between 105.65-106.20.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 105.10 and 104.75. A break to the upside may find resistance around 106.75.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

A US crude oil inventories figure will be released at 1430 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been reversing off the shorter-term moving average. GOLD is up-trending within a large bullish channel but is also ranging between 1526 and 1547. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1526 and 1508. A bullish move could find resistance around 1547 and the channel resistance area.

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