TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 14, 2019

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been reversing off the range support and resistance areas. AUDUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between 0.6745 and 0.6815.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the AUDUSD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.6865 and 0.6895. A break to the downside could stall or reverse around the horizontal support at 0.6695.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates by 0.25% to 1.00% (a record low). The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under low interest rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been moving sideways. The EURGBP has been up-trending but is now looking indecisive. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.9090, 0.9170, 0.9250 and 0.9325. If price closes above 0.9325, the EURGBP may continue to uptrend.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, EURUSD reversed around the diagonal resistance area. Price continues to be indecisive and has formed a horizontal channel at 1.1165-1.1220. The moving averages are tight and are moving sideways – confirming the market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the diagonal resistance area, around the support and resistance areas of the channel and if EURUSD closes out of the channel (break-out trade). A break to the downside could find support around 1.1160 and 1.1115. A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.1245.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD has reversed off the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to downtrend with a bearish channel. The moving averages are tightening though, signalling that downside momentum is weakening.

Selling opportunities could exist around the moving averages, around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.2110, 1.2205 and 1.2245. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse off the recent lows at 1.2020 and around the channel support area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, selling momentum has weakening- price has been bullish. The NZDUSD has swung above the moving averages and around the trend resistance area, signalling that the recent downtrend is now over. Price may start ranging between 0.6425 and 0.6495.

Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.6395, 0.6425, 0.6495, 0.6505 and 0.6575.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 1.50%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poorer than expected. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has become indecisive (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the indecision. The USDCAD may start ranging between 1.3195 and 1.3280.

Trading opportunities could exist around any of the horizontal levels at 1.3120, 1.3185, 1.3195, 1.3280 and 1.3340.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy and economic outlook.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF has been bullish and has become indecisive. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they are tight and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between the recent lows at 0.9670 and the horizontal resistance at 0.9790.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDCHF closes out of the range (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

Just like USDCHF, the USDJPY has been bullish and is now looking indecisive. The moving averages are tightening and moving sideways – confirming the market indecision. Price is ranging between 105.10 and 106.75.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the USDJPY closes out of the range (break-out trade).

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

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