TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 5, 2019

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has continued to be bearish and move lower. Price is clearly down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downside momentum may continue.

Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6865 and 0.6900. AUDUSD may continue to find support around 0.6770.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates by 0.25% to 1.00% (a record low). The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under low interest rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP found support around the moving averages and has been bullish (as suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is struggling to swing higher though, upside momentum is weakening (as also suggested). The moving averages are crossing frequently and moving sideways, signalling market indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.9000, 0.9090, 0.9165 and 0.9185.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the previous horizontal support at 1.1115 and currently the trend resistance area. The EURUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are moving sideways and tightening, suggesting indecision.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.1160 and 1.1180. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 1.1115 and 1.1030.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The GBPUSD recently swung above the moving averages and the moving averages are tightening and moving sideways, all suggesting that price could become indecisive. GBPUSD could start ranging between 1.2090 and 1.2245.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around the previous horizontal support at 1.2425.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, NZDUSD has continued to be bearish and move lower. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum may continue.

Selling opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6540 and 0.6575. The NZDUSD may be rejected or reverse around the recent lows and swing low at 0.6505.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 1.50%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poorer than expected. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.

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