TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 02, 2019
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD reversed around the shorter-term moving average and has swung lower. Price continues to downtrend and be bearish. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue.
Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6835, 0.6870 and 0.6900. AUDUSD may find support around the recent lows at 0.6795.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates by 0.25% to 1.00% (a record low). The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under low interest rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.
US unemployment change and non-farm employment change figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
EURGBP has found support and is attempting to swing higher (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending. The moving averages are tightening though and are moving sideways, signalling that the uptrend could becoming to an end.
Opportunities to go long may exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9145, 0.9090 and 0.9045. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 0.9185.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.
There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding resistance around the shorter-term moving average. The EURUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue.
Shorting opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.1115, 1.1160 and 1.1180. A bearish move may find support around the recent swing low at 1.1030.
The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.
US unemployment change and non-farm employment change figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has reversed off the channel resistance area and the shorter-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The GBPUSD continues to downtrend within a bearish channel. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum could continue.
Selling opportunities may exist around the channel resistance area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2125 and 1.2245. Price could find support around 1.2090 and the channel support area.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.
US unemployment change and non-farm employment change figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, NZDUSD reversed around the trend resistance area and the shorter-term moving average and has since swung lower. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue.
Opportunities to go short could exist around the trend resistance area, around the moving averages and around the horizontal resistance at 0.6575.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 1.50%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poorer than expected. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%.
US unemployment change and non-farm employment change figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD found resistance around the bullish channel resistance area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend could continue.
Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3190, 1.3150 and 1.3120. A bullish move could find resistance around the recent highs at 1.3240 and around the bullish channel resistance area.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy and economic outlook.
US unemployment change and non-farm employment change figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. A Canadian trade balance figure will be announced at the same time.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed around the bullish channel resistance. The USDCHF has been up-trending within a bullish channel but the recent reversal has moved below the channel support area, signalling that the uptrend may be over. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways, signalling market indecision.
Trading opportunities could exist around the previous bullish channel support area (as resistance), around the moving averages and around any of the identified horizontal levels at 0.9805, 0.9840, 0.9870, 0.9885, 0.9940 and 0.9970.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.
US unemployment change and non-farm employment change figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been very bearish and has swung lower. The USDJPY has swung below a number of key support levels and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all suggesting that price could start down-trending.
If the USDJPY starts retracing, selling opportunities may exist around any of the key Fib levels, around the moving averages and around the previous horizontal support levels at 107.25, 107.80, 108.00 and 108.25.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has cut rates by 25 points due to heightened concerns regarding the economy and ongoing trade tensions with China. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.
US unemployment change and non-farm employment change figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD reversed around 1401 and then 1447. Price continues to be indecisive (as also suggested). The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.
Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1401, 1412, 1432 and 1447.
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