TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 29, 2019

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has continued to be bearish and move lower. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

If the AUDUSD starts retracing, opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal levels at 0.6965 and 0.7000. Price may continue to find support around 0.6905.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates by 0.25% to 1.00% (a record low). The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under low interest rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

EURGBP has been bullish. Price has swung above a number of key resistance areas, suggesting that the recent downtrend is over. The moving averages are crossing bullish, signalling upside momentum.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the previous trend resistance area (as support), around the bullish moving averages and around the horizontal level at 0.8955. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 0.9005 and 0.9045.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the range support area. The EURUSD is looking slightly indecisive and is ranging between the recent lows at 1.1115 and the recent swing high at 1.1180. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tightening and are starting to move sideways.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if EURUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.1200 and 1.1280.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish. The GBPUSD is below the recent consolidation area and the moving averages are bearish and widening, all signalling that price could start down-trending.

Shorting opportunities may exist around the bearish moving averages, around the diagonal resistance areas and around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.2385 and 1.2430.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD continues to be bearish and move within a bearish channel. Price is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downside momentum may continue.

Selling opportunities could exist around the channel resistance area, around the bearish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6650, 0.6695 and 0.6715. A bearish move may stall or reverse around the channel support area and around the recent lows at 0.6595.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 1.50%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poorer than expected. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

The USDCAD has continued to be bullish and has recently reversed around the shorter-term moving average (all suggested in Friday’s chart analysis). Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the upside momentum could continue.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3150, 1.3120 and 1.3095. A bullish move could find resistance around 1.3190.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy and economic outlook.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in Friday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bullish and has found resistance around 0.9945. USDCHF is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9905 and 0.9900. Price may continue to find resistance around 0.9945.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

Price is up-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the uptrend could continue.

Opportunities to go long may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 108.35 and 108.30. A bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 108.75 and 108.95.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they are tight and moving sideways. Price is ranging between 1412 and 1432.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if GOLD moves out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may be rejected or reverse around the horizontal support levels at 1401 and 1387. A break to the upside may find resistance around the recent highs at 1447.

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