TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – July 26, 2019

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. The AUDUSD is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, all signalling that the downside momentum could continue.

Selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6965 and 0.7000. A bearish move lower could be rejected or reverse around the recent lows at 0.6910.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has cut rates by 0.25% to 1.00% (a record low). The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under low interest rates. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

A US advanced GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that the downtrend may continue.

Shorting opportunities could exist around the longer-term moving average, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.8955 and 0.9005. An attempt to swing lower may stall or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the recent swing low at 0.8900.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD swung lower and was bearish. Price has since been bullish and has retraced some of the recent bearish move. The EURUSD could start ranging between 1.1115 and 1.1180. The moving averages are tightening and starting to move sideways – confirming the potential indecision.

Trading opportunities may exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if price closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the upside could find resistance around the horizontal levels at 1.1200.

The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, some economists predicting that Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00%. This is likely to stay unchanged until the 2nd quarter of 2020. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

A US advanced GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GBPUSD continues to be indecisive and lack trend momentum. The moving averages confirm the current indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways. Price is ranging between 1.2425 and 1.2520.

Trading opportunities could exist around the support and resistance areas of the range and if the GBPUSD closes out of the range (break-out trade). A break to the downside may find support around 1.2380. A break to the upside may find resistance around 1.2555 and 1.2575.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have shown a slowdown in the British economy. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy, holding back any rate hikes and driving down the Pound. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

A US advanced GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has continued to be bearish and move lower. NZDUSD is down-trending. Price action has formed a bearish channel and the moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue.

Opportunities to go short may exist around the channel resistance area, around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6695, 0.6715 and 0.6735. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the channel support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.6650 and 0.6615.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at the record low of 1.50%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 but recent economic data for New Zealand has been poorer than expected. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until late 2019.

A US advanced GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart 

Price broke to the downside of the range and then reversed around the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCAD is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue.

Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.3150, 1.3120 and 1.3095.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates at a steady pace. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. Oil price fluctuations may impact the Canadian economy and economic outlook.

A US advanced GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF has been bullish and has swung above the recent bearish channel. Price action has formed a short series of higher swing highs and lows and the moving averages are bullish and steady, all suggesting that the USDCHF could start up-trending.

Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 0.9905, 0.9900 and 0.9870.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss economy was stagnant throughout late 2018 but has been showing signs of positive momentum so far in 2019. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued, especially due to the current global uncertainties around Brexit and the US. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.

A US advanced GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart

USDJPY has been bullish and has swung higher. The moving averages are bullish and steady, suggesting that the upside momentum may continue.

Opportunities to go long could exist around the bullish moving averages, around the trend support area and around the horizontal levels at 108.60, 108.35, 108.30 and 108.00.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  has been raising rates steadily over the last 3 years. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.5%. Recent economic projections have been revised down though, no rate hike is now expected until the end of 2019. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy was under-performing in 2018 but is currently seeing signs of moderate expansion.

A US advanced GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to be choppy and indecisive. The moving averages confirm the market indecision – they have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways.

Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 1387, 1401, 1416, 1429, 1432 and 1447.

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