TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – March 12, 2019
AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been bullish and has swung higher. Price action has formed a tight bullish channel and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the channel support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.7065, 0.7050, 0.7020 and 0.7005. A bullish move may stall or reverse around the channel resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 0.7080, 0.7115 and 0.7140.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) continues to hold the official interest rate at the record low of 1.5%. The rate has been held at 1.5% for over 24 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.
US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart
The EURGBP was bullish and then reversed around 0.8670 (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price has since been bearish and has swung below a number of support levels. The moving averages are becoming bearish, signalling that the EURGBP could start down-trending. Opportunities to go short may exist around the previous diagonal support area (as resistance), around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8535, 0.8550, 0.8565, 0.8575 and 0.8610. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the recent lows at 0.8500.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until late 2019.
A UK GDP figure will be released at 0930 UTC today. British parliament will vote on the most recent Brexit deal sometime this evening (UTC time).
EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price is finding resistance around the 61.8% Fib level and around the trend resistance area. The EURUSD is down-trending and is currently in a retrace phase. Shorting opportunities could exist around the trend resistance area, around the 61.8% Fib level and around the horizontal levels at 1.1290 and 1.1320. The bearish moving averages are tightening and becoming more bullish, signalling that downside momentum is weakening and that the EURUSD may move higher. A bearish move may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal support levels at 1.1225 and 1.1180.
The European Central Bank (ECB) have cut economic forecasts, Europe is heading for recession. The official rate continues to be at the record low of 0.00% though. Most economists agree that a rate hike is not likely until late 2019. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.
US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart
Price has been bullish. The GBPUSD has swung above the trend resistance area and a number of resistance levels, suggesting that the downtrend is now over. The moving averages confirm this – they are becoming bullish. Long opportunities may exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around the previous trend resistance area (as support) and around the horizontal levels at 1.3190, 1.3110 and 1.3085. A bullish move could find resistance around 1.3240, 1.3275 and 1.3335.
Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the Pound. The Bank of England (BOE) continues to hold interest rates at 0.75% – 50 base points higher than the 2016 & 2017 low of 0.25%. Brexit continues to add uncertainty to the UK economy. The recent rejection of the Prime Ministers Brexit deal leads to a number of different Brexit options, including cancelling Brexit or leaving the EU without a deal. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.
US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today. British parliament will vote on the most recent Brexit deal sometime this evening (UTC time).
NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the NZDUSD has continued to be bullish and move higher. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum may continue. Buying opportunities could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6835, 0.6820, 0.6815, 0.6795 and 0.6785. A bullish move may find resistance around 0.6870 and 0.6900.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) continue to keep the official interest rate at 1.75%. The RBNZ have announced that the rate is likely to stay the same throughout 2019 and perhaps into 2020. The economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future.
US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart
The USDCAD has been bearish and has moved lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages have crossed bearish and price action has formed a short series of lower swing highs and lows, all signalling that price could move lower. Shorting opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around the diagonal resistance area and around the horizontal levels at 1.3420, 1.3445 and 1.3460. A bearish move could stall or reverse around any of the key Fib levels.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Canada (BOC) continues to raise interest rates, as expected. The current rate is 1.75% – it’s highest since December 2008. Further rate hikes are expected. The recent USMCA has given strength to the Canadian Dollar.
US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has reversed off the trend support area. The USDCHF is up-trending. Opportunities to go long could exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.0070 and 1.0060. The bullish moving averages are starting to tighten, signalling that the uptrend may becoming to an end. Price may be rejected or reverse around 1.0120.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) continues to keep rates at the all-time low of -0.75%. The Swiss Franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB has announced that it will continue to intervene with in foreign exchange markets.
US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart
Price is finding resistance around the trend resistance area and the longer-term moving average (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDJPY is currently down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Selling opportunities may exist around the trend resistance area and the longer-term moving average. A bearish move could be rejected or reverse around the shorter-term moving average and around the horizontal levels at 111.20, 111.05 and 110.85. If the USDJPY breaks to the upside, a bullish move could be rejected or reverse around the horizontal levels at 111.65 and 112.00.
The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) continues to steadily raise interest rates. The current Fed Funds rate is 2.25%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive, giving strength to the Dollar. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) continues to keep interest rates at the record low of -0.10%. The Japanese economy is under-performing.
US CPI figures will be released at 1230 UTC today.
XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart
As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, GOLD is currently reversing off the trend resistance area. Price is down-trending. Opportunities to go short could exist around any of the key Fib levels and around the trend resistance area. The moving averages have crossed bullish, signalling that an attempt to swing lower may fail. Opportunities to go long could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1290.50 and 1283.00.
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