TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 31, 2018

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the AUDUSD has been finding support around the horizontal level at 0.7240. Price continues to be indecisive and lack trend direction. The moving averages confirm the indecision – they have been crossing frequently. Trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 0.7205, 0.7240, 0.7360 and 0.7380. The moving averages are becoming bearish, signalling that the AUDUSD could attempt another bearish move.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

The EURGBP reversed around the horizontal level at 0.8990 and has since been bearish (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The moving averages are bearish and widening, signalling that price may start down-trending. Opportunities to go short could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels and around the horizontal level at 0.8990. A bearish move may stall or reverse around any of the horizontal support levels at 0.8960, 0.8950, 0.8940 and 0.8900.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

Price has been struggling to swing higher. Price action has formed a bearish channel – confirming the strengthening selling momentum. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, suggesting market indecision. Shorting opportunities may exist around the channel resistance area and around the moving averages. An attempt to swing lower could find support around the channel support area. Other trading opportunities may exist around the identified horizontal levels at 1.1535, 1.1645, 1.1710 and 1.1730.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price is currently moving sideways. The overall trend is up though – the GBPUSD is up-trending and has formed a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the dynamic support of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.2930 and around the channel support area. A bullish move may be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.3035 and around the channel resistance area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The NZDUSD has become choppy and indecisive. Trading opportunities may exist around the horizontal levels at 0.6625, 0.6670 and 0.6725. The moving averages have just crossed bearish and are steady, suggesting that price could attempt a bearish move lower.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the USDCAD was finding resistance around the 50.0% Fib level and is now finding resistance around the 61.8% Fib level. Price is down-trending. Shorting opportunities could exist around the 61.8% Fib level, around the trend resistance area and around the horizontal resistance levels at 1.3065 and 1.3100. The moving averages are tightening and are about to cross bullish, signalling that downside momentum may be weakening. An attempt to swing lower may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.2950 and 1.2900.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

Price has continued to be bearish and move lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). The USDCHF is down-trending. The moving averages are bearish and steady and price action has formed a bearish channel, all signalling that the downside momentum could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the channel resistance area, around the bearish moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.9745, 0.9770 and 0.9810.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price has been finding support around the horizontal support at 111.00. The moving averages are tightening and are moving sideways, signalling indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 110.40, 110.65, 110.95, 111.50 and 111.80. The recent bearish move is significant – downside momentum has been strong. The USDJPY may attempt a bearish move lower.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

GOLD has reversed off the channel support area (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. Opportunities to go long may exist around the channel support area, around the moving averages and around the recent swing low at 1197.30. The moving averages have crossed bearish and are moving sideways, signalling a lack of buying momentum. A bullish move could stall or reverse around the horizontal resistance levels at 1207.05, 1213.70 and 1216.35 and around the channel resistance area.

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