TriumphFX Intraday Forex Analysis – 1 Hour Charts – August 30, 2018

AUDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the horizontal level at 0.7305. The AUDUSD continues to be indecisive. The moving averages have been crossing frequently and are moving sideways – confirming the current indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the horizontal levels at 0.7210, 0.7240, 0.7305, 0.7360 and 0.7380.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) have held the official interest rate at 1.5% for over 18 months. The Australian economy continues to grow at a steady pace and produce positive economic indicators under the low interest rate – giving incentive to keep the rate as it is.  Recent inflation forecasts were worse than expected, weakening the AUD. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURGBP – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish. The EURGBP has swung below a number of key support levels and the moving averages are about to cross bearish, suggesting that price could move lower and start down-trending. If price starts retracing, selling opportunities may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.8990, 0.9030, 0.9055 and 0.9095. A bearish move could find support around the horizontal levels at 0.8950, 0.8945, 0.8940 and 0.8900.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economic boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

EURUSD – 1 Hour Chart 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, the EURUSD reversed around the trend support area and has since been bullish. Price is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and steady, signalling that the uptrend may continue. Opportunities to go long could exist around the trend support area, around the dynamic support of the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 1.1655, 1.1645, 1.1620, 1.1600 and 1.1535. An attempt to swing higher may stall or reverse around the recent swing high at 1.1730.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The ECB have announced that the economic future of the Euro-zone is looking more stable and that deflation and economic slow-down is low-risk – the euro-zone economy is performing well. Recent comments by the ECB have been fairly dovish though. Most economists believe that the current economy boom will slow-down and that an interest rate hike is not in the near future.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

GBPUSD – 1 Hour Chart

The GBPUSD has been bullish. Price is above the recent consolidation area and is up-trending. The moving averages are bullish and widening, signalling that the upside momentum could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the previous horizontal resistance at 1.2930, around the bullish moving averages and around the trend support area.

Recent economic indicators for the UK have been positive – giving strength to the GBP. The Bank of England (BOE) recently increased the base interest rate by 0.25%. The economic outlook for the near future is “modest”. Political indecision over the Brexit plan and uncertainty over the future of the UK’s trade deals is weakening the GBP. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

NZDUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price has been bearish. The NZDUSD is below the trend support area, suggesting that the uptrend may be over. The moving averages are moving sideways, signalling market indecision. Trading opportunities could exist around the previous trend support area (as resistance), around the moving averages and around the horizontal levels at 0.6605, 0.6625, 0.6670 and 0.6725.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) recently kept rates at 1.75% and announced that there will unlikely be a rate hike in the foreseeable future – the economy is looking balanced and a drop in NZD price is desirable in order to boost exports. The New Zealand Dollar continues to be attractive to currency investors due to the yield on carry trades. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 1.75%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDCAD – 1 Hour Chart

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price reversed around the shorter-term moving average. The USDCAD is down-trending and continues to be in a retrace phase. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend could continue. Opportunities to go short may exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages, around any of the key Fib levels, around the previous horizontal support levels at 1.2950, 1.2985 and 1.3005 and around the trend resistance area. The USDCAD could continue to find support around the horizontal support at 1.2900.

The Bank of Canada (BOC) recently raised rates to 1.25%. A recent rally on the oil markets has given some strength to the Canadian Dollar. Economists believe that the BOC will increase the interest rate at least 1 more time before the end of 2018. The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar.

A Canadian GDP figure will be released at 1230 UTC today.

USDCHF – 1 Hour Chart

The USDCHF reversed around the 23.6% Fib level and has since swung lower (as suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis). Price continues to downtrend. The moving averages are bearish and steady, signalling that the downtrend may continue. Selling opportunities could exist around the dynamic resistance of the moving averages and around the identified horizontal levels at 0.9745 and 0.9770.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. The bearish stock markets may give strength to the Swiss Franc as the CHF is a safe-haven currency. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the CHF.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

USDJPY – 1 Hour Chart 

As suggested in yesterday’s chart analysis, price moved above the range resistance area and has since been bullish. The USDJPY is above the recent range and the moving averages are bullish and widening, all signalling that price could start up-trending. Long opportunities may exist around the previous range resistance at 111.50, around the trend support area and around the bullish moving averages. The USDJPY could be rejected or reverse around the recent swing high at 111.80.

The US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)  recently raised rates to 2.00%. Recent employment and other economic data for the US has been very positive. This suggests that there could be further rate hikes in the near future. This has given strength to the US Dollar. Due to the recent plunge in global stock markets, the Yen (safe haven currency) has seen added strength. If stock markets become bearish, the Yen may continue to strength. The concern of a potential tariff war between the US and China may also give strength to the Yen. The Bank of Japan (BOJ) has not changed the official interest rate since early 2016. Economic indicators for Japan continue to show signs of moderate growth.

There is no major scheduled news today that will directly impact this currency pair.

XAUUSD – 1 Hour Chart

Price continues to uptrend within a bullish channel. The moving averages are bullish, suggesting that the buying momentum could continue. Buying opportunities may exist around the horizontal level at 1199.35 and around the channel support area. An attempt to swing higher may be rejected or reverse around the moving averages and around the channel resistance area.

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